March Madness is the best playoff system of any sport at any level, and it isn’t even close. The combination of a huge number of teams and the single-game elimination system makes it unpredictable every year. So unpredictable, in fact, we haven’t seen two No. 1 seeds make the championship since 2008, the only year where all four No. 1s made the Final Four. And there haven’t been multiple 1-seeds in the Final Four since 2009, when Connecticut and North Carolina were the only two.
Year after year, seemingly random teams pull off shocking upsets against highly touted, heavily favored opponents—remember Mercer over Duke? And with everyone scrambling to fill out brackets to show off their basketball knowledge, we all want to know who will be this year’s big upset.
So is it possible to spot Cinderella teams before they play? I looked back at recent Cinderellas’ (defined as 12-16 seeds that pull off a first round upset) statistics to see if they are really any different from other low seeds that lose their first game.
These so-called Cinderella teams are easier to spot than you might think.
For one, they make shots. Low-seeded teams that pull off big upsets make a higher percentage of their shots than those that fall in the early rounds. Every successful Cinderella over the past two years has shot better from the floor in the regular season than the highly seeded team they play.
This isn’t just a product of playing teams with porous defenses, though; they take better shots as well. Just 31.6 percent of their shots come from the 3-point line, approximately three percent less than the teams they upset.
Compare that to the low-seeded teams that fail to upset top-tier teams: 33.1 percent of their shots are 3-pointers, almost identical to their opponents’ 33.4 percent rate. It’s a dangerous game to rely on 3-pointers, especially against strong opponents. Stick to open looks.
There’s a common idea floating around college basketball that one great player can carry a team against a heavy favorite. And while this does sometimes happen—Steph Curry led his 10-seed Davidson squad to victories against No. 2 seed Georgetown and No. 3 seed Wisconsin before falling by just two points against eventual champion Kansas—it’s extraordinarily rare.
In fact, teams that rely too heavily on one player for their points generally don’t fare so well in the opening round. Cinderella teams have a more balanced approach: their leading scorer nets just 21.5 percent of their points.
Conversely, teams that fall in the opening round against big opponents get 23 percent of their points from their leading scorer. This heavy reliance means that all it takes is one bad night—or one good game plan—for a low-seeded team to find itself scrambling for points.
On a related note, assists play a large role in upsetting a big-name opponent. Cinderella teams average a full assist more per game than other low-seeded teams that lose their opening round game. This means strong ball movement to find an open shot, as opposed to giving your best player the ball and relying on an isolation look.
Of course, all this makes it seem like the way to upset a team is to play steady, focused basketball. That’s contrary to the popular conception that creating chaos and running up and down the court is the way to beat a strong opponent. A little of that is necessary too, just not on offense.
Teams that lose in the first round against highly ranked teams record more steals per game than their opponents in the regular season just 25 percent of the time, while those that win do so half the time.
Here are the key benchmarks to look for while you fill out your bracket: above 46 percent shooting from the floor, above an eight-point average margin of victory, more than seven steals per game, fewer than 22 percent of their points from one player, 14 assists per game and fewer than 32 percent of their shots from deep.
One of the most interesting potential Cinderella teams this year is Georgia State. They hit just about every mark that matters. Their only blemish is the fact that R.J. Hunter scores more than 27 percent of their points, way above the 21.5 percent sweet spot.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re led by just one player: fellow guard Ryan Harrow adds another 26 percent of their points. It’s much harder to create a game plan for two great players, and it’s rare they both have a bad game.
Georgia State will match up with Baylor in its first tournament game since 2001, but experience against power-conference teams won’t be lacking. They start two transfers from perennial title contenders, Harrow from Kentucky and Kevin Ware from Louisville. This is an upset waiting to happen.
Check out the table for other potential Cinderellas—New Mexico State, Northeastern and Stephen F. Austin.
