Madison temperatures soared past the record high Wednesday when thermometers climbed as high as 64 degrees Fahrenheit, continuing a warming trend in the area.
The record for temperatures for Dec. 5 was previously set in 1988 at a temperature of 55 degrees, and the record for the entire month of December was set in 1970 at 65 degrees. Last year's average Dec. 5 temperatures were a high of 34 degrees and a low of 18.
\If you compare today with a year ago, we were 40 degrees warmer today than last year,"" said John Young, UW-Madison professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, but he added that it is unlikely the warm weather will last.
""This pattern it very abnormal. It's hard to believe it will continue. We'll have some pretty cold days [this winter],"" Young said.
Forecasts for this weekend predict highs in the upper 30s with chances of snow.
According to Ed Hopkins, UW-Madison lecturer for atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration put out a forecast based on ocean surface temperatures and other indicators earlier this year predicting a fairly cold, more typical winter from December to February.
""There's a certain amount of variability that occurs and we're in one of those ruts right now,"" said Hopkins, adding that it is not unusual to have a fairly warm December followed by a colder winter.
Right now the warm weather is caused by cold air trapped in Canada by the jet stream, according to Young.
""The normal pattern is for the jet stream to come down and sit over the United States and instead it is hanging around in Canada. The jet stream for weeks at a time can be wavy,"" Young said.
He said these variances in jet stream waves are sometimes caused by warm temperatures in the tropical Pacific, or ""El Ni??os,"" but currently conditions in the Pacific are nearly normal.
""We have to figure out something else. I don't have the answer for right now,"" Young said.
Despite the predictions for more normal weather, it is very unlikely that Lake Mendota will freeze before winter break, according to John Magnuson, UW-Madison professor emeritus in zoology who works in the Center for Limnology.
Normally the lake begins to freeze in December, he said.
""Thaw dates are getting earlier and earlier and the freeze dates are getting later and later,"" Magnuson said, adding that the lake is typically frozen for between one and a half and five months of the year.
This warming trend, made evident from ice data, has been taking place over the last 150 years, according to Magnuson.
