As candidates for U.S. Congress gear up for the stretch run of their campaigns, political pundits predict that voter turnout and support for either party will largely depend on what lies heavily on the collective mind of American voters.
If voters head into their respective stations Nov. 5 concerned with issues such as homeland security, strong foreign policy and the relentless pursuit of terrorism, then the Republicans should look to maintain their control in the House and possibly regain the Senate, according to a number of analysts.
\It's so very close right now between the two parties, and the international questions are really clouding the picture,"" said Ron Faucheux, editor-in-chief of Campaign & Elections Magazine. ""Any loss by the Republicans could shift the balance of power.""
Due to the small number of contested elections, most experts agree the face of Congress will most likely not change drastically in this election. However, the aggressive races will most certainly heat up as the days grow shorter. The margin is so close that the Democrats need to win only six seats to regain control of the House, something they had not done in eight years.
According to Congressional Quarterly Inc., a non-biased research group, approximately 44 seats in the House of Representatives out of the total 435 are currently in question. Although the Senate races are comparatively more viable, CQI supposes that only 12 of the 33 open seats are toss-ups. The result is that significant sweeping changes in Congress are not likely.
Several experts view this diminutive demographic alteration differently.
""I think [the election] will have a lot of bearing on every issue, because it will determine who has control in Congress,"" said Virginia Sapiro, a professor of political science at UW-Madison and a member of the National Election Studies Board of Overseers. ""The Senate is on more of a knife-edge, but most decisions are obviously made in the House and Senate, and this could determine how many policies are going to be shaped in the remainder of the term.""
Charles Jones, also a UW-Madison professor of political science, said he believes otherwise.
""My expectation is that there won't be much net gain either way. ... There are only about 10 or so contested seats in the Senate, and about 30 or so in the House. It will be hard to pull much actual meaning or material from these elections,"" Jones said.
He added that in order for the Democrats to rally voters around their cause, they would need to focus their energy on emphasizing domestic issues like the recent corporate scandals and the faltering economy.
""The economy is always important in these types of elections, and right now the economy is very ambiguous, meaning that it's hard to determine whether or not it's going well or not and that largely favors the Democrats,"" Jones said.
Sapiro, too said that she sees the Democrats succeeding if they get their message across.
""As far as the general public is concerned, as long as the war and foreign policy are in the forefront, the Republicans will receive more attention. However, if the focus is on domestic and labor and environmental issues, then the Democrats have a much better chance,"" she said.
Although President Bush has brought a whirlwind of donations to Republican campaigns across the nation, reportedly garnering around 112 million dollars from his extensive tour stops, Faucheux believes that Republicans' 50 percent more in campaign finances will not automatically hurt the Democrats.
""Yes, the Republicans have more, but both parties have a lot of money, and the Democrats usually have the backing of large institutions like labor unions as it stands,"" he said. ""Republicans tend to spend more money, but money isn't necessarily transferable into votes.\
