As the Wisconsin governor's race heads into its final month, Democratic state Attorney General Jim Doyle has a nine point lead over Republican Gov. Scott McCallum, according to a poll released over the weekend by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.
The study, done by Harris Interactive, shows Doyle with 40 percent of the vote, McCallum with 31 percent, Libertarian candidate Ed Thompson with 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jim Young with 4 percent. The poll had a 3 percent margin of error, with 18 percent undecided.
Bill Christofferson, Doyle's campaign director, said the results are similar to those released in recent weeks and explains the current strategy of the McCallum Campaign.
\It explains McCallum's strategy of waging a negative campaign, since he is well behind and unable to improve his own popularity,"" he said.
McCallum's numbers in the polls have not changed significantly, said UW-Madison political science Professor Dennis Dresang, adding that the current survey of 1,004 Wisconsin residents shows recent negative advertisements by the McCallum campaign do not seem to impact the public's view of McCallum. Dresang also said the large number of undecided voters would not make a difference in the outcome of the election.
""Undecided voters usually don't show up at the polls at all. Period,"" Dresang said. ""People who are going to vote have already made up their minds.""
UW-Madison political science Professor Charles Franklin offered a different take on the ""closeness"" of the race stating that both campaigns have a lot of time left, and McCallum's position as an incumbent gives him a lot of resources.
""While it seems unlikely that people will fundamentally alter their views of the candidates, there's still four weeks of campaigning left and it is conceivable that something could happen during that time,"" Franklin said.
Franklin also said the votes the poll currently showed for Ed Thompson could make a difference in the election. If the voters realize Thompson does not have a large chance of winning, they may support McCallum because he is ideologically closer to Thompson, according to Franklin. On the other hand, Franklin said he believes these voters may be fed up with McCallum and could vote for Doyle.
Christofferson said the election will reflect how well McCallum has done his job and that ""people are ready for a change."" However, Franklin said the number of undecided voters is large enough at this point given that both candidates have been in office so long and are relatively well known.
""The bottom line is, with over 12 percent undecided and the margin between the candidates from about 4 to 8 percent, I would call this a wide open game,"" Franklin said.
