With the U.N. weapons inspectors' report due today and President Bush's State of the Union address scheduled for tomorrow, the world may find out whether the Bush administration will back its increasingly tough rhetoric on Iraq.
Experts interviewed agree, however, that the Bush administration would probably not bind itself to any decisions concerning Iraq other than to not make any decisions for awhile. Experts said the United States would not call for military action until it builds more support from its allies.
Ronald E. Woods, a former senior diplomat and a professor at the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington, said although the United States certainly has the military power and resources to go to and even win a war against Iraq, it should not do so without international support.
\There are lots of questions once you invade and what do you do after you win the battle,"" Woods said. ""There has to be some occupying force. And at that point if we don't have a lot of support in the area and from Europe, I think we'll find ourselves as the target there and have bought ourselves a lot of problems.""
Woods went on to say that ousting Saddam Hussein could lead to civil wars and refugee movements if the area lacks a strong international presence.
Therefore, Bush may use Tuesday's State of the Union address to build ties with allies regarding a war on Iraq, according to David Canon, UW-Madison professor of political science.
""My guess is that the U.S. won't call for military action,"" Canon said. ""They'll probably give the inspectors a few more weeks to a month and build strong support with our allies.""
Some U.S. allies, like France and Germany, are indeed calling for more time, according to Woods, and not just the few weeks that President Bush is expected to grant inspectors. The allies want a few more months, and that may be precisely what today's report is going to ask for, said Michael Barnett, UW-Madison professor of political science.
""The report is not going to give Iraq a clean bill of health, nor is the report going to say that war is justified,"" Barnett said. ""What the report is going to say is we need more time to do our work.""
Despite Allied emphasis on patience regarding Iraq, the Bush administration's rhetoric is getting more onerous. For example, Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sunday that ""time is running out,"" and defended the use of military force to overthrow the Iraqi regime.
""There are still leaders around who will say you do not have the will to prevail over my evils, and I think we are facing one of those times now,"" he said.
