As the United States continues plans to invade Iraq, it now must contend with the Turkish Parliament's decision Saturday not to permit U.S. troops to base in their country.
The decision came as an enormous surprise to American diplomats, who were under the assumption that the bill allowing American troops to be stationed in Turkey would pass, according to Bruce Cronin, assistant professor of political science at UW-Madison. The Bush Administration made a cash deal with the Turkish government in hopes that the government would be able to get the bill through Parliament, Cronin said.
The members of Parliament might have been swayed to vote against the bill by the unpopularity of war among the Turkish people.
\About 90 percent of the population is opposed to war, and the party in power is very nervous about that,"" Cronin said.
Because the government does not want to damage relations, Yasar Yakis, Turkey's foreign minister, might ask for a re-vote on the issue. This second vote could be the result of American pressure.
""The U.S. has unofficially threatened to retaliate against Turkey with the International Monetary Fund,"" Cronin said.
The United States controls around 35 percent of the votes in the IMF, and could impose financial restrictions that could be detrimental to Turkey if it does not play host to American troops.
John Pevehouse, assistant professor of political science at UW-Madison, called on the United States to negotiate for a second vote.
""Either the U.S. is going to have to sweeten the deal somehow, or something fundamental to Turkish politics is going to have to change.""
However, a spokesperson for the Turkish Embassy said they do not plan on having another vote in the Parliament any time in the foreseeable future.
Several options remain for the United States if the motion fails again, or if Turkey does not re-vote. According to Cronin, the military could attack southern Iraq from Kuwait, moving north through Baghdad.
White House Spokesperson Ari Fleischer expressed doubt, in a press conference Monday, that Turkish compliance is essential for a successful campaign in Iraq.
""There's no question that the Turkish approach would have been a preferable approach, but other approaches are available,"" Fleischer said.
Cronin agreed that the United States would be able to win the war without Turkish assistance.
""It doesn't mean that the U.S. can't invade and win the war without it, but it's going to be much longer and cost many more American and Iraqi lives,"" Cronin said.
