The outcome of the nuclear weapons crisis in North Korea is completely unpredictable according to David Leheny, UW-Madison political science professor and former member of the state department's terrorism office.
\We are in a revolutionary period right now,"" Leheny said, ""and revolutions don't go according to plan.""
Leheny was the guest speaker at the Dane County Democratic Party's monthly issues luncheon at the Concourse Hotel, 1 W. Dayton St.
""Given the conclusion of the war in Iraq it seemed appropriate to have someone talk about North Korea because we're concerned it might be the next war on the Bush agenda,"" said David Gawenda, vice chair of campaigns for the Democratic Party of Dane County.
While he placed the blame for the crisis squarely on the government of North Korea and not on the Clinton or Bush administrations, Leheny spoke about a shift in U.S. foreign policy following Sept. 11, 2001 with some negative consequences.
Led by ideologues like Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, this shift emphasized American military might and its ability to remake the world in America's image, Leheny said.
Although people like Colin Powell recognized the need for multilateral engagement and cooperation, the Bush Administration took the position that negotiations are useless when your country is being threatened. According to Leheny, this was a mistake.
""In the last few months, without negotiating they may have lost the chance for trust,"" Leheny said.
Trust is necessary for the crisis to be resolved, Leheny said, but following the United States' involvement in Iraq, North Korea did not trust the United States. North Korea believes the Bush administration used the nuclear weapons inspections as a pretext for invasion, but Leheny said he does not believe the Bush administration wants to invade North Korea.
North Korea is a country facing economic uncertainty with a government that enjoys popular consent, and these two factors would make it difficult for the United States to fight Korea, Leheny said.
The North Korean government's goal is to stay in power, and the government is willing to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a credible pledge from the United States that it will not attack North Korea, Leheny said.
He predicted that the Bush administration will compromise in one of two ways: make a deal with North Korea in the interest of security or accept the possibility of nuclear weapons in North Korea because it might justify the need for missile defense systems in countries like the United States and Japan.
