Down to the wire. That one phrase essentially tells the story of how Major League Baseball will see its pennant races finish this year. Just think of how the NFL season finished last year, with numerous games meaning the difference between winning the division, a playoff berth and going home for the off season. Baseball is seeing that same kind of competition along with a good amount of parity heading into the final three weeks of the 2003 season.
Starting this final month of the season, half of the teams in the league are still in contention for a playoff spot. This previous Sunday, 15 games were played and only one did not have postseason implications. Time is of the essence, every game matters, and players and managers are stressed and strained. Hold on folks, these next three weeks could very well be the most heated, intense, and exciting baseball fans have seen since the baseball strike of 1994.
The pennant race in the National League is, in a word, congested. San Francisco and Atlanta have, for the most part, locked up their respective divisions, the West and East. Both hold 11 game leads over the second place teams and only late season meltdowns could severely alter those leads.
The Central Division is a veritable crapshoot. By sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers this past weekend, the Chicago Cubs moved into a slim lead in first, but are only a half game up on the Houston Astros and one-and-a-half up on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cubs have a very favorable schedule to close the year, playing series against the Cincinnati Reds, the Pittsburgh Pirate, and the New York Mets, all bottom half teams in their respective divisions.
The Cubs toughest test will come this week when they have to travel to San Juan to play the Montreal/\San Juan"" Expos in the blistering Caribbean heat. The Cubbies are playing well lately, winning seven of their last eight, but the bullpen is still questionable heading into the home stretch, and their offense remains a questionmark.
What may truly decide the Central is when the Cards and Astros meet twice for three game series over these next three weeks. If the Cubs stumble with their lighter schedule, whoever takes the most games between the Cards and Astros could end up on top of the Central.
The wild card race is where the NL goes ballistic. The Philadelphia Phillies hold a slim one-game lead over the Florida Marlins, but depending on how the Central pans out, any team from the Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Expos, Los Angels Dodgers or the Arizona Diamondbacks could find themselves slipping into the postseason via the wild card slot.
The Phillies have two season series against the first place Braves, but more importantly they meet up with the Marlins two times for three game series in a span of two weeks. Philly has won nine of their last ten games, but the bullpen and closer situation just went up in the air with manager Larry Bowa removing the title from the previous closer RHP Jose Mesa. Philly looks to close by committee, but the new trend almost cost them last Sunday's game versus the Mets, as Philly's bullpen gave up three runs in the eighth inning, but held on as the Phillies won in 11 innings.
Not only does Philly have to worry about the dangerous Marlins and their rookie-wonder LHP Dontrelle Willis (12-6, 3.28 ERA), but the Astros, Cardinals, Expos, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all within seven games of the wild card lead. The Astros and Dodgers both have dominating closers in LHP Billy Wagner and RHP in Eric Gagne, respectively. RF Vladimir Guerrero, a legitimate star, at least gives the Expos a shot, which is more then they have had in awhile. The Diamondbacks, inconsistent at best lately, have the starting pitching (when healthy) that could carry them into the postseason.
Depending on how the bats swing and the balls fly these last three weeks of the season, anything could happen. In pennant races past and present, every last game counts. This year is no different.
