Sunday, a poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post found that President Bush is in a statistical dead heat (48-47) with his Democratic rivals for the 2004 presidential election. If current trends continue, the election may become one of the most hotly contested races in recent history. With the combination of an early Wisconsin primary, Feb. 17, and growing excitement on campus, the UW will play a major role in deciding whether Bush enjoys another four years in office or is kicked to the curb.
President Bush's once stratospheric support has been crumbling under the pressure of his struggling Iraq policy and the continuing economic slump. Even Republicans who once derided any criticism of his administration have begun to question the president's decision making. To bolster his approval ratings, the president has to hope the Iraq situation and the economy dramatically improve under his unsteady leadership, or terrorists attack us again. Another option would be initiating a new war for the third time in three years, although drudging up support for that would be difficult.
Democrats have yet to single out their choice for nomination from the plethora of candidates. Under the leadership of Dean and Kucinich, the Democrats have taken a harder line against the administration in order to distinguish them from the president. They are keenly aware that leadership, not rubber-stamping, is the key to the White House.
Bush is also in a difficult situation with his political publics. His core support comes from the Religious Right, who have been concerned about what they see as his lack of solid opposition to social policies regarding stem-cell research, purging church from state and sexual identity, among other things. But pandering to his base means potentially alienating the general public, who do not hold such traditionalist views as strongly.
Wisconsin's 11 electoral votes, early primary and relative partisan balance make it especially appealing to candidates. Although the primary is more than three months away, Dean, Kucinich and Clark have already visited Madison, demonstrating the key role Wisconsin will play over the next year. As a university, we have the privilege of wielding an unusually powerful voice in determining the future of our country, and as the future of America it is our duty to make our voices heard.
