Yesterday the much embattled presidential candidate Howard Dean came through Madison. Dean's one-time front-runner bid is falling like a lead balloon. His \I Have a Scream"" speech in Iowa caused many former supporters like myself to question our previous collective judgment and Dean's fitness to lead the country.
His campaign treasury, once the envy of the Democratic field, was revealed to be in pathetic shape. He didn't even have the resources to compete in this week's primaries, and his best showing was 16 percent in New Mexico. He's banking on some kind of comeback in the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 17 to breathe new life into the campaign. Beyond wondering if he can even get such a win here, it should be asked if this state will even matter that much.
This year's Democratic primary calendar is unlike any ever used in the past. The Democratic National Committee wanted a presidential nominee to be quickly chosen in 2004, circumventing a drawn-out process which could leave the nominee bruised going into the general election. Under this calendar, states vote in succession with little delay between them. Nine states have now voted in the last two weeks. By this Tuesday, five more states will have spoken. This leaves the candidates all in search of momentum, the good press and prominent endorsements that can follow one victory to another in a virtuous cycle.
Dean's poor showing in Iowa, compounded by his election-night tirade, guaranteed he would be shut out from this cycle. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., saw his campaign rejuvenated by an Iowa comeback that then propelled him into this virtuous cycle. Whereas in December Dean looked like an lock for the nomination and Kerry a minor also-ran, Kerry won five of seven states this week and Dean is becoming a candidate of the minor fringes. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., have been trying to get some momentum of their own to take on Kerry, and each can claim one state victory and some impressive second-place showings in this week's contests. Look for contests this weekend in Michigan, Washington [state] and Maine, and this Tuesday in Tennessee and Virginia to give us some more insight into the dynamics of the race. If Kerry continues to sweep, Wisconsin won't even matter when it does come.
Lost in all the horse-race coverage is the question over whether this frontloading, apparently successful in its goal of minting a victor rather quickly, is actually good for the country and our democratic process. Dean fell from grace after an extended period as the Democratic front-runner. A drawn-out process helped the electorate screen out a bad candidate.
If the calendar's purpose comes through then Kerry will not be derailed for lack of any similar window of time, regardless of whether he actually does have flaws. We the voters may not have the opportunity to the horse-race coverage from each weekly primary would prevent the proper review of the new front-runner for any flaws.
Wisconsin is, in some ways, lucky in this whole business. Our primary stands alone on its own day, our result held up in the public eye for a solid week. However, if the previous states feed into Kerry's virtuous cycle of momentum, then by the time we come around he'll be the last man standing. This would mean that roughly 15 states, mostly small ones, decided the entire Democratic race for the other 35. The people will be shortchanged of the elections they deserve. At the very least, we can only hope that there still is a Democratic race to speak of by the time we vote.
Eric Kleefeld is a senior majoring n political science. He can be reached at opinion@dailycardinal.com.
