It's official. Though the Democratic National Convention is months away, the nomination has been decided. In November, President Bush will face Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. Kerry won nine out of 10 contests held on Super Tuesday, forcing his final serious rival Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., out of the race.
Oddly enough former Gov. Howard Dean, D-V.T., the one-time front-runner, won his first primary in his home of Vermont, two weeks after he had dropped out of the race. Edwards failed to win a single state, meaning a man who dropped out of the race a fortnight ago won more primaries on Tuesday than Edwards did. As it is, Kerry has so far won 27 out of 30 primaries and caucuses held so far, a resounding mandate from the party grassroots to carry on the general election against Bush.
It was an election season full of surprises. Kerry put forth the most presidential image of any of the candidates, using his military record, his life as a senator and his overall demeanor to convince people that they could plausibly picture him in the White House. If someone had suggested even two months ago that Kerry would have this sort of outstanding victory, crushing all competitors, that person would have been laughed at. Dean's nomination looked inevitable, with his message of anger at Bush and promise to renew the courage of the Democratic Party. What caused the end result was Dean 's failure to truly convince people he could win. He reminded everyone that Democrats had to actively oppose Bush but could not put forward the image that he could do more than actively oppose, that he might successfully oppose. When it was over he had only one victory, a loyalty vote in his home state, to put on his wall.
With any luck Dean will be remembered along with past presidential candidates like former Gov. Bruce Babbit, D-Ariz., or the late Sen. Paul Tsongas, D-Mass., candidates who failed to win the presidential primaries but substantially altered the terms of discourse. Tsongas's run in 1992 put the subject of deficit reduction on the political map, making balanced budgets a key Democratic issue even today. Hopefully Dean's legacy of an enlivened activist base, though it did not put him over the finish line, will remain with the Democratic Party for years to come.
It's important for the future of our country that the Dean activists stay in the process and support John Kerry. Kerry is going to need every bit of help he can get. While Democrats were spending hand over fist against one another, Bush was building up a sizable war-chest for himself. Right now he has over $100 million on hand, and you can bet he's going to be spending a lot of it in the next few months to redefine Kerry. Without weekly primary victories over credible opposition, Kerry will now find himself without an easy source of positive media coverage. Already Republican leaders in Congress are planning to stage various controversial votes to put Kerry on the spot. Our country is beginning one of the longest general election seasons ever, and Kerry will have to find a way to overcome Bush's advantages of incumbency for setting the national agenda.
Kerry has already gone part of the way towards this goal, already naming Jim Johnson to head his committee to search for a running mate. This would imply that Kerry is going to name a running mate not before the convention, as is usually done, but much earlier, perhaps before the summer. This would help draw more publicity in the short run and allow the ticket to have two members who could be campaigning anywhere in the country at any given time. Some more negative statements that have to be made in the course of the campaign could be kicked over to the running mate rather than Kerry himself, and the running mate could hold fundraisers while Kerry is touring the country. If Kerry is planning on an early selection of his running mate then that's a great step towards getting the campaign in gear to fight back against the relentless attacks he is going to face.
We are now facing a long, drawn out campaign season that will be conducted under the constant shadow of international crisis. The Republicans will pull out every stop to attack Kerry and try to define him as someone the American people cannot trust. If Kerry is to overcome the various institutional advantages that Bush and the Republicans have, he must take the initiative at every step and take the fight to them.
