Ralph Nader's recent announcement that he will run for president in 2004 generated attention from the media and disapproval from Democrats.
However, according to political science experts and Nader supporters, it appears unlikely his candidacy will have as much impact in 2004 as it did in 2000.
Representatives of local Democratic and Green organizations agreed Nader will have less support this year than he did in 2000.
Don Eggert, co-chair for UW-Madison Students for Kerry, said Nader's candidacy will have less appeal this year because people are more focused on uniting to defeat President George W. Bush.
\A lot of people who supported him last time won't even consider him this time simply because they're so concerned about what happens if George Bush finds a way to win again,"" he said. ""I think that an awful lot of people, even on the very progressive left, are just going to say 'Thanks, but no thanks.'""
According to Brian Lutenegger, co-chair of the Four Lakes Green Party of Dane County, Nader's decision to run as an Independent will probably translate into less support from Greens. He said the Green Party will have a candidate regardless of Nader's decision, and said most Greens will support that candidate. He added that without the Green Party infrastructure, Nader will have more difficulty getting ballot access.
UW-Madison political science Professor Virginia Sapiro said because of these factors, Nader's impact on the 2004 elections is likely to be negligible.
""The party that supported him last time isn't supporting him this time, and most people who might be inclined to agree with him on a lot of things don't want to lose the election again,"" she said.
Nonetheless, Eggert said it was still possible for Nader to affect the outcome of the presidential elections. He said that some people may still vote for Nader as a protest candidate, a decision that could affect the outcome in swing states. Moreover, he said Nader's candidacy hurt the Democrats in 2000 and could do so again in 2004 by forcing them to devote resources where they otherwise might not have.
""Anything that makes [Bush's defeat] questionable is a distraction that we can't afford,"" Eggert said.
According to Lutenegger, Nader's candidacy, while irrelevant for the outcome of the election, will have a positive effect on the quality of the debate.
""He will bring forward issues that aren't talked about otherwise in the campaign such as the drug war, such as corporate power,"" Lutenegger said.
However, Eggert argued that Nader could promote his ideas more effectively by running for congress or seeking a cabinet position rather than running for president.
