In every presidential election, there are states that specific candidates are almost guaranteed to win. Republican candidates, for example, usually carry many southern states, and Democratic candidates typically win states along the Pacific Coast.
However, there are also states that can go either way. These \swing states"" are probably the ones upon which presidential candidates place the strongest focus.
The importance of these states was highlighted most notably in the 2000 election, when the margin of victory for then-Governor George W. Bush or then-Vice-President Al Gore was less than 1 percent in five states: Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin and Iowa.
These states, along with seven to 12 others, will likely decide the outcome of the election in 2004.
""The full list [of swing states] is probably somewhere between 16 and 20 [states],"" UW-Madison political science Professor Charles Franklin said.
By far, the most important swing state, experts said, in 2004 is Ohio. With 20 electoral votes, the candidate who carries Ohio will have a tremendous advantage in the election. Still, both candidates will not make drastic campaign changes as they go from state to state, according to Franklin.
""Pretty much [Bush and Kerry will use] the same strategy [in the swing states] as [they will] nationally,"" he said.
Merrill Smith, spokesperson for the Bush re-election campaign agreed.
""We are really focusing efforts on every state and not taking any for granted,"" she said.
The Bush campaign has formed ""grassroots teams"" to help spread Bush's message as well as to register voters. Bush has also begun airing campaign ads, both to highlight what Smith referred to as Bush's ""steady leadership"" and to contrast himself with Kerry. These ads are airing most frequently in the swing states.
Kerry has also been campaigning around the country since becoming the likely Democratic presidential nominee, and is taking similar steps to secure a successful campaign in 2004. Still, Ryan Grady, chairperson of the UW-Madison College Democrats, said Kerry's job will not be as difficult as that of Bush.
According to Grady, this election is a referendum on Bush, and Kerry just has to prove that Bush has been wrong for the country in the last four years.
""In the coming months, John Kerry's job is going to be easier and easier,"" he said.
