Although few in Wisconsin were watching last Tuesday, President Bush won one of the most important battles for the future of his presidency-by just 15,000 votes.
Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter won the Pennsylvania Republican primary over House challenger Pat Toomey by the narrowest of margins. While this contest may seem to have little consequence for the presidential election in November, the fact that Specter found himself the victor means Bush may have a firm chance in a state he lost by only 4 percent in 2000.
Specter is a moderate Republican and has the support of many similarly moderate-and wealthy-Democrats in Pennsylvania, one of the biggest swing states in the nation. These democratic contributors will not support the democratic challenger in the general election, Joe Hoeffel, with the same voracity as they would have, had Toomey won.
Although this may seem to have little effect on a presidential election, Pennsylvania voters will now see millions of dollars of television advertisements broadcasting a decidedly Republican message with little democratic response. That is millions of dollars that the president does not have to spend convincing voters of his accomplishments and millions of dollars Kerry will have to combat.
According to the National Journal, Bush's reelection team was pondering giving up in the swing state should Toomey have won.
Toomey is the token right-wing conservative, and his messages were, in all reality, unlikely to appeal to moderate Pennsylvania voters. The Democrats, likely to take a more moderate stance, would have trounced Toomey, the much weaker general election candidate. Although many of these points are largely speculation, it is not a far reach to assume that, in a contest between Hoeffel and Toomey, the Republican's crushing defeat would have also been Bush's.
What should be most significant to those interested in the presidential election is that Bush had gone all in with Specter. Bush appeared in multiple TV ads touting Specter as his personal choice for the Senate. In one public appearance, Bush went so far as to say: \I can count on this man ... he's a firm ally when it matters most.""
Had Toomey been able to pull off the surprising victory in the primary, it would have be a catastrophic embarrassment for Bush's reelection. Not only would it mean his endorsement mattered little in an important swing state but in addition, Bush would have a forced Republican association with the right-wing Toomey, not exactly a position Bush wants to find himself in moderate Pennsylvania.
Perhaps the best chance Bush as of gaining electoral ground is the is in the state he only lost by 5,000 votes in 2000. Remember that, in recent Badger Polls, Bush was winning Wisconsin by about 5 percent. Compound that with Russ Feingold's, D-Wisc., Wisconsin's incumbent democratic senator, approval rating of only 47 percent and suddenly the Pennsylvania case does not look so unfamiliar.
If all this is sobering to the Madison liberals out there, it should be. Feingold has been consistently outspent in past elections and it is not unlikely that the champion of campaign finance reform will not come up short again this round.
While, in reality, it does not seem that Feingold is in any real danger of losing his Senate seat, appearance is the only thing that matters in politics. Feingold's approval rating will only encourage a barrage of Republican money to be spent in Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin voting public will, at best, get an onslaught of anti-Feingold messages and, at worst, the idea that a Democrat in the senate is wrong for Wisconsin. It is not a far leap for them to reason that a Democrat in the White House is also wrong for Wisconsin.
So for those Bush-haters who think politics on the local level cannot possibly affect the outcome this November, realize that all it might take for those 5,000 votes to slide over to the Republican column is the appearance of weakness in a senator and the indifference of the local voting public.
Nathan Arnold is a sophomore majoring in journalism and political science. Send resonses to opinion@dailycardinal.com.
