The majority of the latest polls indicate that President Bush is nursing a tenuous lead of only 2-5 percent, which is well within the margin of error. However, the pundits in print and on TV who are ever-ready to forecast Nov. 2 have begun interpreting these numbers as indicators of a Democratic whitewash and a Republican White House.
Kerry's summer stump speech, which was an attack against the president that consisted of a jumble of charges over a wide range of issues, seems to have produced very little traction outside the Democratic rank and file. Traditional Democratic staples such as health care, education and the economy were muddled by the fuss over Bush and Kerry's Vietnam service. Throw into the mix the old Republican standby-security-and Kerry looks like he's been dealt an impossible hand.
But there's a guerilla war waging in the Middle East in which 1,057 Americans have died, nearly $200 billion have been spent and an entire presidency hangs in the balance. When Americans flock to the polls, chances are it will be a popular referendum on the Iraq War. Despite the current red/blue political impasse, the issue that will likely decide the election is the one which is most subject to change.
Iraq, the issue that will dominate tonight's debate, provides Kerry with the opportunity to finally stick Bush with an issue. The Kerry camp, after floundering on Iraq, finally seems to have its feet set and is poised to make Iraq an example of President Bush's incompetence. During this past week, Kerry took off the gloves and leveled some blistering claims against the president, accusing him of describing Iraq in a manner devoid of reality, claiming that Iraq is \a diversion in the war on terror."" He was not alone: Sen. Chuck Hagel said, ""We're in deep Trouble in Iraq ... Right now we are not winning. Things are getting worse."" Chuck Hagel from Nebraska happens to be a Republican.
Just by getting the facts out on Iraq, Kerry can strike political paydirt. The difference between Bush's campaign mantra about happy and American-loving Iraq and the contrast to the realities on the ground has become a major news story. Due to Kerry's frontal attack, Bush has been forced to downgrade his rosy assessment of Iraq to a more moderate position, describing Iraq as ""tough as heck right now."" As the situation deteriorates, the Bush team will be hard pressed to continue to portray Iraq on its own terms. But they will certainly try because they know that bad news from Baghdad is good news for Kerry.
However, Kerry cannot lash out on Iraq with impunity because of his ghastly record of back-and-forth on Iraq. Kerry shouldn't question the legitimacy of the war but rather question the outcome. He is already developing a message focusing on Bush's grave miscalculations in terms of the Iraq price tag and post-war Iraq. He has to make it almost redundantly clear that it is the planning of the war, and not the decision to go to war, that has resulted in the mess formerly known as Iraq.
This would be a very delicate balancing act, difficult on its own without having to worry about the Republican counter-offensive. But fortunately, he does not have to make the case that Iraq is a disaster on his own, Bush has already seen to that. If Kerry can articulate a clear message on Iraq, it is anyone's ball game.
Iraq will be at the forefront in the minds of voters in November. The question will be not if Iraq got better, but if John Kerry's message did.
opinion@dailycardinal.com
