Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died Wednesday night after falling into a deep coma last week, prompting Palestinian officials to begin preparations for the 75-year-old's burial in Ramallah, West Bank. Political leaders are speculating on the country's political future and its volatile relations with Israel.
\This is a sad day in our history, and we grieve today for the death of our president,"" said Palestinian Cabinet Minister Saeb Erekat.
The Nobel Prize winner, who has chaired the Palestinian Liberation Organization since 1969 and served as president of the Palestinian Authority since 1993, leaves behind him a government faced with deep social turmoil and continued tension with Israel.
""Arafat was a catastrophe for his own people and the region,"" said Robert Lieber, a Georgetown professor of government and international affairs told The Daily Cardinal. ""He is the predominant symbol of Palestinian nationalism but is an ultimate failure as a nationalist leader because he could have had a state for his people ... and he turned it down.""
Since the 1930s, Lieber said political moderates have been silenced with threats of murder. The Palestinian people, he said, have been bathed in an onslaught of anti-Jewish, anti-Israeli and anti-American propaganda.
UW-Madison School of Business Senior Lecturer Jennifer Loewenstein said social conditions in the Gaza Strip are in disarray, with widespread poverty and unemployment, and high incidences of post-traumatic stress among children.
With such a legacy of authority and a government facing challenging problems, Loewenstein said the future of Palestinian leadership is ""very much uncertain.""
""It's a matter of whether the leader can deal with the existential problems that prevent progress toward peace,"" Lieber said. ""The person who comes to lead Palestine will have to speak authoritatively for his people.""
According to Palestinian basic law, Parliament Speaker Rawhi Fattuh would temporarily replace Arafat, and free elections would be held within 60 days. The predominant question is whether this plan will be implemented.
University of California-Berkeley Professor Steven Weber predicted there will be jockeying for power after Arafat's death, especially because Arafat avoided setting up any kind of formal succession procedure while in power and undermined those who posed political threats.
""Systems like that typically don't undergo smooth transitions,"" he said.
There are several politicians who could vie for power in the event of free elections, including current Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei, Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath and anti-Arafat and Fatah member Mohammed Dahlan.
Regardless of who assumes power, Arafat's successor will have to establish legitimacy among his own people and the rest of the international community. Arafat set a precedent of dishonesty and propaganda, and according to Lieber, there has to be a ""period of de-escalation"" before a legitimate chance for peace with Israel is reached.
Lieber said the first step in this period must be the disengagement of Israel from Gaza and a series of ""pragmatic negotiations"" with Sharon.
""[The successor is] going to have to promise a continuity with the ideological struggle that Yasser Arafat personified, but also a kind of change of policy when it comes to what actually happened as a result of that struggle,"" Loewenstein said.
She added Palestinians, while hopeful for free elections and a change of power, are not overly optimistic about post-Arafat reforms.
""[Palestine] is in such a state of emergency, for people to sit back and say, 'Oh, let's be democratic' is somewhat unrealistic,"" she said.
