Wisconsin's significance in today's election may be unprecedented, say UW-Madison professors.
Monday, the day before the election, both candidates trekked through Wisconsin and several other battleground states, holding rallies an hour apart in Milwaukee.
The state was last estimated as favoring incumbent President Bush by eight points, according to a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28 to 30.
Nationally, today's election appears to be one of the closest presidential races in American history, with a Gallup poll conducted Sunday finding Kerry tied with Bush after factoring in likely undecided votes according to voter patterns in recent years. The 49 percent draw marks the first time in Gallup history that a presidential election has been tied in its final estimate before Election Day.
\Wisconsin's potentially very important, but it really depends on whatever states the candidates win. If Bush wins Florida and then Pennsylvania or Ohio, Wisconsin will be less important, and the same thing would go for [Democratic presidential candidate John] Kerry, so it's going to depend on how the other states go,"" said UW-Madison political science Professor Donald Downs.
Downs added the winner would likely be in the range of 270 electoral votes, and said if that were to happen, Wisconsin, a state that casts 10 electoral votes, could make the difference.
""But it's not like it's just Wisconsin,"" Downs said, citing other swing states. ""It's looking like Iowa and Minnesota are leaning more Kerry's way, so right now Wisconsin's important.""
UW-Madison journalism and mass communications Professor James Baughman agreed, noting Wisconsin's 30-year history as a battleground state, particularly in the 1976 election.
Baughman further recapped the shift in dynamic from larger, vote-heavy states inward toward smaller swing states, exemplified by California's transition from a state winnable by Republicans to a staunch bastion of Democrats.
""California [and New York] have become states that Republicans don't have a chance at carrying,"" he said.
Despite his misgivings about the system, Baughman is reluctant to condemn it.
""No one's a big defender of the [Electoral College] right now, but any other way, and we'd never see these guys. They'd all be in New York and California,"" he said.
Wisconsin is one of six hotly contested states, according to the poll. The other states are Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. Wisconsin and Minnesota are the only two of these states where a candidate leads outside of the margin of error, with Bush and Kerry leading by eight points in each respective state.
""It's going to be very important what happens here,"" said George Twigg, Kerry's campaign coordinator in Wisconsin.
""It's a great opportunity for people who live here and vote here. They have a huge say in what's going to happen tomorrow, so it's a great opportunity and a great responsibility, especially for everybody to get out and exercise their right to vote,"" Twigg added.
