With the conference season underway, one preseason prediction still rings true: No. 1 Illinois (5-0 Big Ten, 19-0 overall) is still the team to beat in the Big Ten. Regardless of how they fare in their match-up at No. 18 Wisconsin (4-1, 13-3) Tuesday night, the Illini are in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title. Here's how the Big Ten season may play out down the stretch.
The Favorite
The Illini finally received their first test of the young conference season against No. 23 Iowa (2-3, 14-4) last week, needing overtime at Assembly Hall to dispatch the Hawkeyes. The schedule does not get any easier, starting with a trip to Madison Tuesday to take on the Badgers and their 38-game winning streak at the Kohl Center. To date, this game will be the most significant Big Ten match-up of the conference season, but Illinois draws teams two through six in the conference standings in their next five games.
Following the trip to Madison, the Illini face Minnesota Jan. 29, Indiana Feb. 6 and Wisconsin Feb. 12 at home and then head to the state of Michigan, traveling to Michigan State Feb. 1 and Michigan Feb. 8. How Illinois performs in these next six games will either validate or expose head coach Bruce Weber's veteran group as tops in the Big Ten.
The Contenders
The Badgers and No. 15 Michigan State (4-1, 12-3) will most likely duke it out for second in the conference, depending on how the Illini fare. But should Illinois falter, both Wisconsin and Michigan State are in prime position to claim the Big Ten crown.
Wisconsin currently has the upper hand on the Spartans, thanks to a thrilling comeback victory in Madison Jan. 16, but the Badgers will face some tough competition down the stretch, starting with Illinois Tuesday night. Wisconsin's victory in Ann Arbor this past weekend was a step in the right direction for head coach Bo Ryan's squad, but with trips to Illinois Feb. 12 and Michigan State Feb. 24, the Badgers must continue to play well on the road and must avoid the classic \trap game"" that has beleaguered them in the past (see: at Northwestern, 2004). The Badgers do draw Iowa, Michigan and Indiana at home, but face a surprisingly tough Ohio State team in Columbus Feb. 27.
The Spartans were dealt an early blow in conference play, allowing the Badgers to stage a remarkable comeback in a game Michigan State essentially had wrapped up. But the Spartans do get a schedule break: They host Illinois Feb. 1, but do not have to travel to Champaign to face the Illini. The Spartans also get a chance to enact revenge on the Badgers Feb. 24 in East Lansing, and travel to Iowa Feb. 5 and Indiana Feb. 27. Also, do not forget the annual Michigan/Michigan State series, as both teams always come to play regardless of the venue.
The Dark Horses
Despite a rough go in non-conference play, Indiana (4-1, 9-7) has started steady in conference play, but a tough road lies ahead. With trips to Iowa Jan. 29, Illinois Feb. 6, Michigan Feb. 12 and Wisconsin March 1, most of Indiana's big games occur in hostile confines. The Hoosiers host Michigan State Feb. 27, but may be out of the race by then.
The biggest challenge for the Iowa Hawkeyes is to overcome their 1-3 start to the Big Ten season. But if any team in the Big Ten can overcome a slow start, it is Steve Alford's squad. With one the most versatile players in the Big Ten, junior guard Pierre Pierce, Iowa draws most of their toughest opponents at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
After falling to Illinois in overtime Jan. 20, the Hawkeyes will look to repay the favor Feb. 19 when the Illini travel to Iowa City, Iowa. The Hawkeyes also get Indiana, Michigan State and Ohio State all at home. But trips to Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan to end the year may be the difference in the Hawkeyes contending for the Big Ten title.
