Natural events happen in predictable cycles-the rise and fall of wolf populations every five years, the recurrence of sunspots every 11 years.
So do some unnatural events. Events as patently unnatural as, say, a Wisconsin victory over Michigan football.
The Badgers have experienced spurts of victory against the Wolverines every 15 years, on average. Since 1892-the two teams' first matchup-Wisconsin has played Michigan 58 times and won only 10.
With a measly batting average of .170, it might be useful to examine those precious few wins to see if they have anything to say about Wisconsin's chances in this weekend rivalry.
The answer, in fact, might lie in Wisconsin's passing game, which has been the most consistent indicator of success against the Wolverines.
The first time Wisconsin beat Michigan was an away game in 1893, one year after the two teams first met. In fact, The Daily Cardinal reported the Badgers crushed the Wolverines 34-18, but today Michigan may claim the win was unfair-in the days before stadium lighting, the game was called off early \on account of darkness.""
Six years later, it was the 19th-century legend Patrick ""Kangaroo Kicker"" O'Dea who boosted the Badgers to a 17-5 victory in a game critical to Wisconsin's conference championship hopes. O'Dea, a senior fullback and punter hailing from Melbourne, Australia, led the Badgers to a much-needed victory. Cardinal front-page headlines in all caps blared only ""MUST WIN!!""
A 29-year drought against Michigan ensued, the longest in Badger history. But a ""determined"" and ""hopeful"" Badger squad returned in 1928 to defeat the Wolverines
7-0 in Ann Arbor in perhaps the most suspenseful game the two teams have ever played. Despite an imposing Michigan defense, a last-minute pass propelled the Badgers to a win. The Daily Cardinal exuberantly proclaimed the victory in a headline that spanned the front page: ""CARDINALS BREAK MICHIGAN JINX.""
The next victory, a 10-0 win in 1934, came unexpectedly. The Badgers had experienced a ""hectic"" season with team members quitting midseason and practices consumed by ""much quibbling"" between coaches and players. Head coach Doc Spears was ""not optimistic."" Still, it was an amazing 99-yard touchdown by junior running back Lynn Jordan in the first 30 seconds of the game that sealed Michigan's fate. Wisconsin's passing game, again, was crucial in keeping the ball away from the Wolverines for the rest of the match, resulting in a 10-0 victory.
The Badgers were to wait 25 years for their next victory, but the late '50s and early '60s were a high point for Wisconsin in the cross-lake rivalry. The hard-fought 1959 game in Michigan resulted in a 19-10 Badger win, but it was the next year's match that was historic for Wisconsin. Fifty-eight thousand fans-the most UW had ever seen-packed Camp Randall to witness Wisconsin's first-ever home victory against Michigan.
The key to the 16-13 victory in 1960 appeared again to be the Badgers' ability to pass the ball through Michigan's daunting defensive line. It was then-sophomore tight end Pat Richter's third-quarter pass reception that set up Wisconsin for one of two touchdowns. Richter, who went on to become UW's athletic director, broke his collarbone on the play.
Richter was also a part of the Badgers' 34-12 rout at home in 1962, the result of the team's ""spectacular offense"" and passing.
Nineteen years passed without a victory. The four years between 1976 and 1980 passed without even a point against Michigan, which outscored Wisconsin 176-0.
But a blissful 1981 season opener saw the ""fall from the pedestal"" of Michigan, whose team was ranked No. 1 going into the game. Though Wisconsin somehow outplayed Michigan in all aspects of the game, the 21-14 victory, again, relied on passing. Wisconsin had 182 passing yards in the game, compared with Michigan's 39.
The tension going into the 1981 game was balanced only by the ecstatic response to the victory. An amazed Daily Cardinal asked, ""Is it fact or fantasy?"" while one columnist wrote the win was ""proof positive of a supernatural force in the universe.""
Yet it is likely the Badgers' notorious 1993 home victory that fans at Camp Randall today remember most clearly. Overjoyed at the 13-10 victory, a mob of 12,000 students charged the field, seriously injuring 70 students in the process.
The stampede left an ugly mark on the face of UW athletics, since ESPN had been filming the event live across the nation. But the victory, which relied on the Badger defense, was not itself spectacular.
The last time the Badgers defeated the Wolverines was 31-19 in 1994. The game was decided by a 31-yard third-quarter touchdown pass to freshman wide receiver Tony Simmons.
""We're flat,"" said Michigan head coach Gary Moeller after the game. ""I don't know why and I'm disappointed.""
But since that game, UW head coach Barry Alvarez has been the disappointed one each time the teams meet.
""I can't remember a year when Michigan has been down,"" he said. ""Their?down years are pretty good years. Their play has been very consistent over the years and they've continued to recruit well.""
If history repeats itself, Wisconsin is due for a victory within the next four years.
Still, it will take more than soothsaying to win this weekend's brawl.
