The recent death of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist ushered in a new battle over filling a second vacancy on the Supreme Court, and resulted in the nomination of Judge John Roberts as the new Chief Justice.
UW-Madison experts said President Bush's promise to act quickly to replace the Chief Justice opening is sure to yield a justice with a conservative ideological background similar to Rehnquist's. However, Roberts' ideological stance is anything but defined.
\I think conservatives have to worry about whether Roberts is less of a conservative than Rehnquist,"" said UW-Madison law Professor Ann Althouse. ""Conservatives have frequently been let down with nominees who were supposed to be conservative.""
Take George H. W. Bush's nomination of Justice David H. Souter. Souter, who was thought to be extremely conservative, disappointed many Republicans who supported him for that particular reason.
UW-Madison political science Professor Charles Franklin of the UW Political Science department says that liberals could have been much worse off.
""Roberts seems to be well qualified as a legal mind and [liberals] may be able to breathe a sigh of relief because there are others who Bush may nominate that are strongly ideological.""
Although it is not clear who will succeed Rehnquist's 33-year tenure on the court, Althouse sees the vacancy left by Justice Sandra Day O'Connor a more pertinent area of concern.
""Who replaces O'Connor is the key question,"" Althouse said, ""She was the swing voter in many cases.""
Professors like Franklin see Roberts' confirmation as nearly inevitable and irrelevant whether Roberts' appointment as Chief Justice is confirmed.
""In one sense it doesn't mater that much if he is Chief or Associate Justice,"" said Franklin, ""there will be a conservative shift regardless.""
Franklin adds that he envisions Roberts as a judge that is exceedingly personable, exuding many leadership qualities.
""Roberts would be a justice that can disagree with liberal justices and not make them hate his guts,"" said Franklin. ""There is an excellent chance that [Roberts] will be more of a unifying force and not a polarizing force.""
Furthermore, Roberts is ""a well qualified legal mind"" and his credentials put his ideologies in their shadow, Franklin added.
To UW-Madison Political Science Professor Donald Downs, the conservative shift in the court comes as no surprise.
""Eventually the court follows the political trends of the country,"" Downs said. ""Today national politics have treaded in a conservative direction and has more grounds for conservatism.""
That brings Bush to a decisive crossroads in his nomination process. He now has to decide what his next nominee's judicial qualifications are.
""The next point is whether his next appointment will be based solely on credentials or more ideologically based,"" Franklin said.
