Putting a presidency in historical perspective while it is still in office is admittedly difficult. But each passing day decreases the probability that George W. Bush will go down in history with a net positive reputation.
At this point, it is far more likely that Bush will go down as one of the worst presidents in American history. Perhaps even the very worst.
What makes or breaks a historical legacy is not the set of petty ideological issues of the day, but rather a broad, overarching question: Has a president left the country in better or worse condition than when he or she found it?
Only a select few presidents have truly made America worse than it was before. Richard Nixon takes the cake as far as clear-cut criminal behavior, while Ulysses S. Grant and Warren Harding presided over pervasively corrupt administrations.
Herbert Hoover sat on his hands while the Depression plunged millions into poverty, and Franklin Pierce and James Buchanan failed abysmally in dealing with the burgeoning slavery crisis of the 1850s.
By whatever barometer you choose, President Bush gives these infamous chief executives a run for their money.
Though his criminality is not quite as personally nefarious as Nixon's, Bush broke the law by authorizing warrantless National Security Agency wiretaps and detaining U.S. citizens as terrorists without filing charges or providing them legal representation.
Two other actions—the disingenuous case for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the firing of eight U.S. attorneys for partisan political reasons—may not have broken any specific laws but were certainly handled in a dishonest manner.
If corruption is the measure, the Bush presidency should also receive very low marks. Under his stewardship, the Republican Party's ethical center rotted away as GOP congressional leaders cohorted with corrupt lobbyists on golf courses in Scotland.
The party that claimed to stand for fiscal discipline ran up the biggest budget deficits in history and allowed unprecedented amounts of irresponsible spending, most outrageously $223 million for a bridge in Alaska to an island of 50 residents.
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has savaged this ""bloated, irresponsible and incompetent government."" And he's running for president as the pro-Bush candidate.
Sometimes presidents can escape the condemnation of history when their successes somewhat balance out their failures. Lyndon B. Johnson's legacy was ruined by Vietnam, but he nonetheless passed the most sweeping civil rights and anti-poverty legislation in American history.
Jimmy Carter was unable to fix a weak economy, but he made innumerable contributions to world peace. Even Nixon, despite the Watergate scandal, opened peaceful relations with China and pursued dActente with the former Soviet Union.
Bush has virtually no such mitigating accomplishments.
His domestic legacy consists of the following: an under-funded No Child Left Behind Act, the much-maligned USA Patriot Act, a set of budget-busting tax cuts for millionaires and a prescription drug bill loaded with special-interest giveaways and passed only by threatening congressmen with political retribution.
And who can forget the glacial federal response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster?
On foreign policy, the Bush administration will be remembered for squandering opportunities.
The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, provided an opportunity to unite the country and the world. Instead, Bush did the exact opposite by polarizing the country and shattering America's international prestige.
He had opportunities to foster democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq, but these have resulted in neglect and disaster, respectively, and have quite possibly made America more, not less, vulnerable to terrorist attacks.
Four-star General John Sheehan, no wild-eyed liberal, said of the administration's Iraq policy, ""The very fundamental issue is, they don't know where the hell they're going.""
The historical book isn't shut just yet on the Bush administration, but the damage caused by six years of arrogant realpolitik, excessive secrecy and emphasis on partisan politics over responsible governing won't be easily repaired in the next 18 months. It's possible he'll meet congressional Democrats halfway to pass a semi-respectable immigration reform bill, but it may be too little too late.
George W. Bush undoubtedly believes in miracles. To save his legacy from the lowest depths of American history, he'll need one.
