We all should have seen this coming. I personally think Barack Obama knew of the onslaught to come, and that was why he mentioned a possible college football playoff system on Monday Night Football and 60 Minutes. I of course am talking about the only two invitations that are given out for the 2008-09 BCS national championship game. It is looking very likely, again, that there will be some confusion on who deserves a spot in the National Championship Game. One thing I can promise you though, is that BCS officials are praying to God that Alabama and Texas Tech (the only two unbeaten major conference teams) will win out. Because then and only then will the country have two undoubtedly worthy teams playing for the National Championship. If I were a betting man though, I would say there will be some major shifts in the BCS rankings in the upcoming weeks. Let's find out why.
SEC
This one is a bit easier to figure out, but not too easy. For this conference most people have come to the conclusion that it all comes down to the SEC championship game of Alabama vs. Florida on December 6. The reason for this is because everyone has agreed that the winner of the SEC must play for the national championship. But even though this SEC title game is already set in stone, these two teams still have difficult match-ups along the way that could easily change the rankings in another team's favor. The speed bump for Alabama would be the Auburn Tigers in the 2008 Iron Bowl. Everyone knows that a matchup late in the year with a team's most heated rival is never a guaranteed win. Take West Virginia in last year's Backyard Brawl against Pittsburgh.
Although Florida fans would love to see Alabama lose, they would have to remember that they have a few speed bumps of their own to face. Not only does Florida have to beat Alabama for a spot in the national championship game, they also have to beat a very improved Florida State team on November 29. So lets take a look at possible scenarios.
The first scenario could be that Alabama loses to Auburn and Florida beats Florida State. If this were to happen, then Florida would be the favorite in the SEC title game, but what if Alabama won the SEC title game? Would the Alabama loss to Auburn be forgotten so quickly? Would a one loss Alabama team really have the right over a one loss Penn State or USC team for the National Championship game?
The second scenario could be Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl, but Florida loses to Florida State. Obviously people would favor Alabama in the SEC Championship game if this were the case, but once again, what if an upset occurred and two-loss Florida beat undefeated Alabama? Could a two-loss Florida team really earn the right to play for the National Championship? Alabama definitely wouldn't be allowed to play for the National Championship if they don't even win their conference, right?
A third scenario could present itself as well. What if both Alabama and Florida lose in the upcoming weeks to Auburn and Florida State?
As you can see, none of these teams have an easy road ahead considering they both have two major match-ups remaining. If I were to guess, I would say that Alabama cannot remain unbeaten much longer. For some reason, the college football gods do not like to make things simple and I see them giving another No. 1 rated team an upset in the closing weeks of the season.
Big 12
And to think that was the easy one. Well, I do not even know where to begin with this conference. One thing is for certain, though: there is no possible way that a team in this conference does not make the National Championship game. I think, and the pollsters agree, that three of the best five teams in the country are in this conference. As of right now, all roads go through Texas Tech. At this point, one cannot help but feel sorry for the Red Raiders. For the past two weeks, No. 2 Texas Tech has not been favored in their games. Nothing has changed either, as they are getting ready for their third week in a row of being underdogs. This week they travel to Oklahoma to face the No. 5 Sooners. This game is pretty simple to Texas Tech: win and they are in the National Championship Game. It does not matter what happens in the Big 12 Championship Game because the fact is, even if they lose to Missouri or Nebraska in that game, they still have beaten Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. At least that's what the fair thing would be. But say Texas Tech loses this weekend to the Sooners, then what happens?
There would then be a three-way tie in the Big 12 South. According to rules, the Big 12 Championship Game is chosen, in the case of a tie, on the basis of who is ranked highest on the Nov. 30 BCS standings, so they are saying that voters have to decide which team is the best in the Big 12 South, even though all three teams have beaten at least one of the other teams.
On one hand, Texas Tech has a very entertaining offense and would make for a great championship game participant. On the other hand, a three-way tie might actually make the BCS reconsider the current system and change to a playoff. But with it would come the misery two of those three teams must deal with since they would believe they had earned the right to show they are champions.
My pick for this year's BCS National Championship game is Florida vs. Texas. I choose these two teams because I do not see Texas Tech or Alabama staying undefeated. Each of their upcoming schedules is too harsh and I believe Florida and Texas have shown that they are the two teams that come closest to perfect. I hope that I am wrong though, because if I am right, then the BCS could claim for another year that the system produced undoubted champions.
