Typically at this point in the season, the NFL playoff picture is getting clearer with each passing week. This season, however, that trend is only holding true in one conference. The NFC playoff picture is taking shape with both Green Bay and Philadelphia winning last week to improve to 7-4 to separate themselves from the 6-5 Giants and Falcons. It's pretty certain the final five weeks will be a battle between these four teams for the two wild-card spots, with Green Bay and Philadelphia in the driver's seat.
But it's been a strange trend in the AFC, where with each passing week the playoff picture becomes murkier. Instead of knowing more about who will be in the playoffs in the AFC after a weekend of games, it seems as though we know less.
Last weekend three teams entered their games with six wins, and only one of them, Denver, won. The 6-4 Jaguars had a matchup with the floundering 49ers but failed to capitalize or even put up a fight as they lost 20-3. Pittsburgh also entered its game against 5-5 Baltimore with a chance to get to 7-4 and slide into the final wild-card slot, but instead of solidifying their playoff chances while delivering a knockout punch to the Ravens, they fell to 6-5 and kept Baltimore very much alive in the hunt for a wild-card spot.
All of a sudden two teams that entered last weekend 4-6 each picked up a victory and now find themselves one game out of a wild card spot and in the thick of a playoff race. Miami felt it needed a win to remain alive for a wild-card spot and lost to Buffalo, but is still not out of the race now at 5-6. Houston is in the same boat. It was dealt a crushing defeat this weekend, but at 5-6 is still in the playoff chase.
What this all means is six teams are separated by one game, all vying for one playoff spot. But even at 7-4 the Broncos are still too unstable after their four-game losing streak to be considered a safe bet for the playoffs, meaning there are now seven teams battling for wild-card berths.
So who's going to step up and gain these berths? I didn't trust Denver when it was 6-0, and I certainly don't trust the Broncos now after they've lost four of their last five games. But the Broncos' schedule down the stretch is too favorable for them not to finish with 10 wins, typically the magic number for a playoff berth.
The defending champion Steelers would seem like a good bet to capture that final spot, but now with Roethlisberger's health in question, it's hard to predict what Pittsburgh will do in the final five weeks.
It's fun to see the Jets, the Dolphins, the Texans and the Titans in the playoff mix. Even though these teams are only one game behind, they just are not that good, as shown by their losing records.
That leaves the Ravens. With six wins they're in a better spot than those five-win clubs since they've already faced the brunt of their schedule, and their remaining slate includes only two teams with winning records.
My bet is the Ravens run the table and finish 11-5, where they ought to be in the standings. They should join Denver as the two wild-card squads. Whether this plays out or not, I'm still excited to see how this season unfolds over the final five weeks.
How do you see the hunt for the playoffs panning out? E-mail Scott at kellogg2@wisc.edu.
