Political science professors Howard Schweber and Jeremy Menchik expressed optimism about a democratic Egypt but doubted the ability of protesters to bring it about at a forum Tuesday.
""It is conceivable [President Hosni Mubarak] could be gone the end of the week,"" Schweber said. ""It is conceivable that he could hang on until September … I think the answer to that question is no longer in the hands of the protesters.""
Mubarak may have avoided being ousted, according to Menchik, though he is unlikely to keep significant power. He fostered fear of instability and radical groups to stay in power, according to Schweber, by opening the border with Gaza, which risked letting in Muslim insurgents, and by having plain-clothes security forces loot cities.
""Mubarak's strategy was simple all along,"" Schweber said. ""‘If you don't accept me, then chaos will follow. It's me or the radical extremists. It's me or Egypt goes up in flames.'""
Schweber and Menchik emphasized the role that other groups, including the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and the secular middle class, would play in determining the path Egypt's government would take. They downplayed fears that the Muslim Brotherhood would gain power through the polls and revert to an Islamic state like Iran.
""The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is not a violent radical organization,"" Schweber said. ""Let me state this more strongly. The stuff you hear on television about this being a modern 1979 is hysterical fear-mongering.""
Although they have ties to Hamas and Hezbollah, the Brotherhood is very hierarchical and has shown a commitment to nonviolence over the last 30 years and could act as buffer against more radical groups in an Egyptian democracy, according to Schweber.
Menchik said this shouldn't be seen as a validation of the United States' promotion of democracy in the Middle East.
""In some ways we're irrelevant,"" Menchik said. ""Twitter and Al Jazeera and WikiLeaks have done more to promote democracy in the Middle East in the past 10 years than the U.S. has.""
