As former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum looks to make up ground against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney during Wisconsin’s open Republican primary April 3, Wisconsin voters are preoccupied with Wisconsin’s own political turmoil.
The primary falls in the middle of the recall process against Gov. Scott Walker and state senators that has captured the state’s attention, said political science professor Barry Burden.
“[The primary] is going to be a brief pause from [the recall process] for this week. As soon as it’s over I think the news about the recall will ramp up again,” Burden said.
Burden said voters’ opinions about the recall process would have little impact on the way they cast votes for the primary, but the volatile political atmosphere that has defined the state could polarize voters in the general presidential election next fall.
While Wisconsin voters have been distracted from the upcoming primary, the state could make or break Santorum’s chances to be nominated.
Santorum’s potential success will hinge on his ability to gain votes from Wisconsin’s rural population. In earlier primaries, Santorum has carried rural voting districts while Romney relies more so on urban and suburban voters.
UW-Madison College Republicans will not endorse a particular candidate but Chair Jeff Snow stressed how important winning Wisconsin is for Santorum’s campaign.
“Wisconsin is more Santorum friendly than most of the upcoming states, so if he doesn’t win Wisconsin he has absolutely no shot at the GOP nomination. It’s his last chance to get more momentum and delegates,” Snow said.
Burden said success in the state would allow Santorum to “keep the conversation going” and stay competitive in future primaries if he is successful in Wisconsin.
Snow said UW-Madison students will play a lesser role in Wisconsin’s primary election because it falls over spring break, and liberal students tend to outnumber conservative students.
While students who will vote in the primary are expected to favor Romney, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is projected to do significantly better with students than he will in the state overall because he has a “dedicated” student following, according to Burden.
“He’s going to appeal to students who are really interested in libertarian ideas; wanting more freedom, less government intervention, paying less taxes,” Burden said.
But Burden said even though Paul has raised the most money in Wisconsin, fundraising is not a good indicator of public support.
“Paul often outraises his opponents, but is unlikely to win a single state,” Burden said.
