After four months of ups and downs, buzzer beaters and heartbreaking defeats, we are finally here. March Madness has finally arrived. But before you toss yet another tear-soaked bracket into the trash following Thursdays opening round of games (yes I still call them opening round games because that’s what they are; Tuesday’s play-in games do not constitute a “first round”), take a step back and look at just how wide open this year’s tournament is.
The word “parity” is such an apt descriptor for this year’s NCAA tournament that it should be hanging from banners in each arena and showcased on placards surrounding every court, right beside the ads for Gatorade and Muscle Milk.
So many different teams have a shot to cut down the nets this year, you might have better luck filling out a bracket by just pulling team names out of a hat or one of those funky money blowing booths you'd find at a car dealership.
So who is the favorite this year? An easier question may be “which is your favorite child,” or “which leg would you rather have cut off,” but we’ll try to hazard a guess anyway.
Louisville, the tournament’s top-overall seed, has been rolling lately, after winning their last 10 in a row en route to a Big East tournament championship. But look at who else is in their region. The No. 2 seed is Duke, a team that is very dangerous after the return of senior forward Ryan Kelly and easily could have been a one seed. The No. 3 seed is Michigan State, which despite losses in four of their last seven, is still coached by Tom Izzo, and has a veteran roster that is more than capable of taking down anyone in this tournament.
Perhaps the biggest threat to take down Louisville though, is fourth-seeded Saint Louis, who would face the Cardinals in the Sweet Sixteen should they both advance. The Billikens have won 15 of 16, including three wins over Butler and two over VCU to claim the A-10 regular season and postseason titles, and are my personal pick to make the Final Four out of this region.
So if not Louisville, how about Gonzaga? The No. 1 team in the country has not lost since Jan. 19 (at Butler) and scores 77.6 points-per-game thanks in large part to the third best shooting percentage in the country. If the Bulldogs want to make it to the Georgia Dome for the Final Four, they will have to take down some of the best from the Big Ten in Wisconsin and Ohio State. Both of these teams have been on fire recently and each team’s ability to control the pace of a game could wreak havoc on the Bulldogs high-powered offense.
According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecast for the NCAA tournament (yes, that’s the same Nate Silver who correctly predicted each of the 50 states during last fall’s presidential election), Gonzaga has just a 6.1 percent chance of winning the national title—far and away the lowest of any one seed. So for now, we can scratch them off the list.
Can Indiana go all the way? Led by sophomore forward Cody Zeller and junior guard Victor Oladipo, they have arguably the most complete roster of any team in the country, but the Hoosiers cannot play with a “No. 1” before their title this season, evidenced by the fact that they dropped three games while ranked as the nation’s top team. Sorry Tom Crean, no dice this year.
"Hey how come you didn't mention Kansas, they are a one seed too, aren't they!?" Well random person, Kansas lost to TCU this year. Yes that's Texas Christian University. The same team that went 2-16 in the Big 12 this season and who's 55 point-per-game average (good for 343rd in the country) makes the Badgers attack look like the Miami Heat's. That, to me, is enough to take them out of consideration.
Ok, so enough talk about who is not going to dance their way to an NCAA championship this year, let’s look at the team that—to me—has the best opportunity to win it all.
This team won the regular season and postseason tournament for one of the best conferences in the country. They have a 3-1 record against ranked opponents this season and have won those games both at home and on the road. They also have extra motivation courtesy of the selection committee, which gave them a two seed despite their resume clearly showing they had the quality of a one.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, my pick for this year’s NCAA title is the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Canes excel in every facet of the game, they are led by one of the nation’s best guard in sophomore Shane Larkin, and are in one of the easiest regions of the tournament.
Yes, Miami did lose games to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State, but those losses came early in the season and this team has grown significantly since then.
According to Silver, Miami has just a 2.0 percent chance of winning the title this season, but in a season filled with parity and unpredictability, those sound like pretty good odds to me.
