Now that Wisconsin has exposed Northwestern and Michigan has fallen to Penn State, it’s definitely reasonable to say the Badgers are the second best team in the Big Ten, with Ohio State as No. 1.
Sure, Nebraska and Michigan State have looked pretty good recently, but trusting that respective defense and offense is like trusting the Wisconsin kicking game.
With that in mind, it’s time to look at the Badgers’ bowl prospects. Wisconsin’s three biggest opponents (Arizona State, Ohio State, Northwestern) are all in the rear view mirror and it’s quite likely that they win out.
In that event, you have a 10-2 Big Ten team with a famously well-traveling fanbase. Even better is that those two losses are both “good” losses. One is universally known as a ref screw-up and the other is to a likely undefeated Ohio State.
That would be a sexy team for bowl selection committees, enough that a BCS at-large bid would be a totally reasonable possibility.
So how do the Badgers end up in a BCS bowl?
There are 10 spots in BCS bowls, with six of them automatically taken by the champions of the automatic-qualifier conferences. You also have your automatic at-large bids (top-14 teams in bad conferences, usually undefeated). This year, that could be Fresno State, but only if it wins out.
The SEC will get another at-large bid, because they are the SEC. The Big 12 will likely not, because that conference is pretty bad this year. Its only undefeated teams left are Baylor and Texas Tech, and neither of those teams have been really challenged.
That leaves two spots and three conferences to supply an at-large team (a conference can only have two teams in a BCS bowl each year). Wisconsin would likely be the last at-large admitted, as it has to make up some serious ground to qualify.
In order for Wisconsin to have a shot, some teams are going to need to lose to the point where they leave the top 14 and lose at-large eligibility. The second tier of the ACC and Pac-12 are now the enemy.
Take away the champions of each conference, probably Oregon and whomever wins the Clemson-Florida State game this Saturday.
The ACC and Pac-12 teams left in the current top 14 are the Clemson-Florida State loser, UCLA, Miami and Stanford. Three of those four have to lose enough to drop out of the top 14 for Wisconsin to make it.
If the Badgers do make it, they will probably end up in the Orange Bowl. After the National Championship teams are replaced, the selection order for at-large bids this year goes Orange, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl (brought to you by Fanta).
While a fourth-straight trip to the Rose Bowl would be nice, it’s not likely. The Rose Bowl committee is probably getting a little sick of hosting the Badgers, and it will definitely take into account that ticket sales lagged last year for Wisconsin to the point where Stanford bought back 8,000 unsold tickets from its opponent.
If the Rose Bowl passes on the Badgers, and the conditions I laid out are met, that means the Rose Bowl will probably take the SEC at-large and the ACC/Pac-12 at-large. This would give the Orange Bowl a choice of Wisconsin, Louisville (American Athletic Conference champion), and Fresno State.
Wisconsin is the obvious choice there, as it is the most likely to sell tickets and draw viewers, which is what the bowls really care about.
If Fresno State loses, that frees up another at-large and we have more flexibility. Add one of the four I mentioned before to the mix, and the Orange Bowl could take those teams and push the Badgers to the Sugar Bowl.
And, once again, this is all dependent on Wisconsin winning the remainder of its games.
So there you have it. If you want Wisconsin to make a BCS bowl, it’s going to require winning out, and some teams need to lose. Get ready to root against Fresno State to free up at-large spots or for the ACC or Pac-12 to not be able to produce an at-large bid.
Do you think the Badgers will make it to another BCS bowl game? Who do you think will be their toughest opponent standing in the way? Do they deserve to make it to another one after their recent disappointments? Let Jack know what you think by emailing sports@dailycardinal.com.
