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Sunday, November 24, 2024

Column: Breaking down the BCS Standings

The BCS standings were released Sunday with the same fanfare and controversy we’ve come to expect. Complete turmoil and upheaval have rocked the standings for the past two weeks.

College football is becoming what it is best, a proverbial game of high jump in which the top teams in the rankings narrowly escape and the rest fall into the piranha pool of one-loss teams that maim and then eventually eat each other.

This is the last of the first BCS standings because next year will play host to the inaugural College Football Playoff.

The BCS standings are flawed. I’m not debating this, but it’s a hell of a lot better than the system in place before 1999.

The original system was simply the AP poll. Whoever was No. 1 at the end of the year was the champion; the BCS poll was created to combine human polls, the Harris Poll and the Coaches Poll, with a computer system that ranked teams in more of a statistical sense.

The human polls are flawed—coaches are too busy, well, coaching, to really see who’s number one, and sports writers, myself included, are usually pretty dumb. These human polls are riddled with bias and chained to preseason convictions. In the past two weeks, 16 ranked teams have lost. Seven last week, nine this week. If the Top 25 were actually the Top 25 they wouldn’t lose all the time.

The computer poll tries to balance that out. There are six computer polls, each with a slightly different statistical method of determining who’s No. 1.

The BCS is computed as one-third Harris poll, one-third Coaches Poll and one-third computers. The six computer scores are added up, the highest and lowest scores are dropped and the four remaining scores are averaged.

BCS composite scores are on an inverse order so No. 1, is worth 25 points (25/25 equals 1). No. 2 is worth 24 (24/25 equals 0.96) and so on.

So for example, Alabama is No. 1 in the Harris Poll, No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and Nos. 2, 1, 3, 3, 2 and 1 in each respective computer. So the highest and lowest computer scores are dropped (one and three), which means that Alabama’s computer ranking [(1+2+2+3)/4] is No. 2, or a BCS composite of 0.96. So, (1 + 1 + 0.96)/3 = .098, which is the highest score and why Alabama is No. 1 in the current BCS standings.

Confused yet? That’s ok. There is a lot of season to go.

Freaking out over the first batch of BCS rankings is a rather foolish endeavor to begin with because every team in the Top 25 has at least one matchup with another ranked team. There’s a lot of hubbub because Florida State jumped Oregon for the No. 2 spot. Florida State is coming off an impressive win over Clemson.

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In fact, the Seminoles have looked invincible these past two weeks, systematically eliminating the competition 63-0 and 51-14 in their last two games, both of which came against ranked teams.

Oregon has played one ranked team, Washington, and won 45-24. But here’s the deal, Oregon has games against No. 12, UCLA next week and No. 6 Stanford the week after. If the Ducks win both contests they’ll jump FSU no problem.

It’s not time to freak out over rankings with seven weeks left to play. College football has a way of sorting itself out. I can only hope that 10 ranked teams lose next week.

As always, see ya Saturday.

Grey loves college football, and he loves to hear from other college football fans. If you’ve got a burning question or even just a comment you think he should hear, email sports@dailycardinal.com.

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