University of Wisconsin-Madison assistant political science professor Andrew Kydd, who is known as a “scientist among political scientists,” addressed an intimate audience at a Madison Committee on Foreign Affairs event Monday where he presented a case for neutral intervention in humanitarian crises.
Kydd, who specializes in topics including political violence, conflict resolution and weapons of mass destruction, makes human behavior models to determine how political actors should behave to achieve certain desired outcomes, similar to models economists make to predict changes in the market.
Kydd said intervention models illustrating how to respond to mass killings support neutral intervention, which means intervention efforts do not favor either group and do not seek regime change. The models also support targeted sanctions and punishment for leaders who kill civilians during civil war.
But Kydd said when considered in the context of real scenarios, such as in Libya and Syria, the models fair “terribly.”
“The problem with humanitarian intervention is that it’s viewed as feeble and weak, and unlikely to happen by the perpetrators,” Kydd said, which leads people such as Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to think they can execute mass killings and “the international community will do nothing more than talk about it.”
NATO forces justified neutral intervention in Libya in 2011, according to Kydd, but the situation escalated to regime change culminating in the overthrow of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
Although the ongoing situation in Syria is much worse than the case was in Libya, the Obama administration’s reluctance to intervene has been “palpable,” Kydd said.
Kydd chided President Obama and his administration for their response when the Assad regime crossed Obama’s “red line” in a chemical weapon attack in August, which killed an estimated 300 to 1,700 Syrian civilians.
But Kydd also acknowledged the administration's indecision regarding Syria may stem from complexities in the region, including the existence of multiple rebel groups.
Committee member David Knuti said Kydd presented the intervention problem from multiple perspectives and inspired critical discussion about the roots of conflict.
“That’s the best kind of academic power, somebody who can really put some analysis into it rather than just toss around some personal opinions,” Knuti said.
