As the threat of war looms over Ukraine and the international community scrambles to respond, the United States and its allies are weighing their limited options for mediation, according to University of Wisconsin-Madison associate professor Andrew Kydd.
Anti-government sentiment had been simmering since November 2013 when former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a proposal for further economic integration with the European Union, prompting protesters to occupy Independence Square in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev.
Frustrations within the initially peaceful movement ignited when heavily armed riot police attempted to forcefully disperse the demonstrators, resulting in weeks of vicious street-battles that left more than 100 dead and thousands injured on both sides, Kydd said.
Violent clashes between demonstrators and government forces have ceased since Yanukovych was forced to flee the capital in late February. Russia has since been using the turmoil as a pretense to position forces in the province of Crimea, where ethnic Russians constitute a majority of the population, according to Kydd.
A group of heavily armed Russian-speaking men seized the Crimean parliament building in Simferopol Feb. 27. After hearing pleas for support from Crimean Prime Minister Sergei Aksenov, President Vladimir Putin secured permission from the Russian Federation Council to deploy military forces in Ukraine. Since then, Russian armed forces have surrounded Ukrainian military units and installations in a standoff that has persisted for almost a week.
Kydd said Russia’s motivations for the occupation are complex and hardly transparent, but some of the Kremlin’s ambitions in Crimea are clear. The coastal Crimean city of Sevastopol is home to the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, Russia’s more than 200-year-old naval unit responsible for operations in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, meaning the peninsula holds significant strategic military value.
Russia also hopes to send a message to Ukraine—which in recent years has been inching toward integration with the European Union—that distancing itself from the Kremlin will not come without a price, according to Kydd.
“Putin thinks of himself as the strong man, and he views the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union as the result of weak leadership,” Kydd said. “He is demonstrating to the new government in Ukraine that, hey, if you want to move away from Russia, there are going to be consequences.”
Russia’s intervention in Crimea was met with condemnation and threats of economic sanctions from the international community, but many fear the West is left with few substantial options.
“The options are mostly diplomatic,” Kydd said. “The likelihood of any force being used is very low, but any ongoing efforts to bring Russia closer to the West will most likely cease.”
One such effort is the upcoming 2014 G8 summit in Sochi, Russia, which the U.S. announced it would be boycotting Tuesday. While the impact of the boycott is limited, Kydd said it sends a clear message of disapproval toward Russia’s occupation of Crimea.
