Two weeks ago, the White House put forth an announcement both Republicans and Democrats alike had been eagerly awaiting for months: the number of enrollees in President Barak Obama’s signature health care reform. To the awe of Republicans, who were banking on further failure after the botched October rollout, and to that of Democrats, who breathed joyous sighs of relief as they head into midterms in the fall, the president announced the administration had indeed surpassed its enrollment goals with 7.1 million Americans receiving private health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
Now, while candidates of both parties were perhaps momentarily put off or impressed with these numbers, they are unlikely to significantly alter the lay of the land for the upcoming election cycle. Public approval of Obamacare hovers around 40 percent while its dissenters remain in the high fifties, and the president’s job disapproval has only slightly alleviated since the fall (If it makes you feel any better, Mr. President, Congress’s approval rating is still infinitely worse). Indeed, no Democrats in tight races, like Senators Kay Hagan and Mark Pryor, are cozying up to their votes for the president’s health care law, nor are their Republican opponents backing down from their inexorable attacks against them.
These numbers, then, beg one question-—will the Democrats be able to fend off their Republican challengers in this fall’s midterm elections?
For the GOP, the winning strategy they should pursue is simple: continue to rail against President Obama and his policies. As is typical in nonpresidential election years, the executive is not at all popular, and as I suggested above, nothing short of some insurmountable, extraordinary achievement is going to reshape the public’s perception of the presidency and its key initiatives.
While the health care law seems to have been successful in its first round of enrollment, the weeks of free, negative media Republicans earned during the botched rollout further entrenched Americans in their views in a way similar to the propaganda they used against the law’s passage in 2010. Furthermore, Democrats won a second term in the White House a year and a half ago on the mandate they would cure the economy of its woeful ways.Today, though improving, the job market remains sluggish at best and its outlook equally bleak. Thus, if Republicans can continue to get on television and tie Democrats to the presidency in the eyes of the public, they can coast into their seats come November. If they don’t, it would be a huge opportunity lost by the GOP.
Comparatively, Democrats have it tough. The economy is still inert and lagging far behind all of our hopes. Americans still dislike the Affordable Care Act. They don’t have the money or the benefits of big-spending interest groups like conservatives do. In response to all these factors, Democrats will have to run smarter, leaner, more cunning operations than the Republicans, an area where they are skilled. Rather than sticking to the GOP status quo with the nasty talk of health care and jobs, Democrats need to create issues their counterparts have to respond to: women’s health and equality, minimum wage, immigration reform — all issues on which Americans and Democrats align. And so far, they’ve been doing a fine job of slamming their conservative opponents on their backward views of social matters.
However, there’s something else essential Democrats need to do to in order to win the upcoming elections. That’s to get organized with good data. You see, history has told us that Democrats are bad voters. There are a lot of them, but they don’t vote consistently, especially in nonpresidential elections. Leading up to the election, Democratic political operatives precisely target their potential voters. To get those targets to vote, a friendly volunteers needs to knock at their doors to remind them they need to get to the polls. It doesn’t sound like much, and in some ways, it isn’t. Field programs like this swing the vote only a few percentage points in one direction or the other, yet at the same time, those few points make all the difference.
In states like Wisconsin, where statewide elections always fall within a tiny margin of votes, a few percentage points are the difference between success and failure, a win and a loss. And for Democrats, the best part is that Republicans don’t have the technology or the capacity to do the same, a sad takeaway for the Republican National Committee after 2012. If liberal grass roots organizations start hitting the pavement over the next several months, they will fare far better in November.
Alas, more can change between now and then. Perhaps we’ll suffer another financial crisis at the fault of Democratic regulatory policy or a clandestine investigation will uncover a massive conspiracy to commit voter fraud (Does that line sound familiar?). But until then, Democrats, get out there. You haven’t lost yet.
Do you agree the Democrats can still do well in the upcoming midterm elections despite what historical trends have shown? Is the GOP poised to retake control and put an end to President Obama’s agendas? Will the Affordable Care Act be the straw that broke the camel’s back for the Democrats? Please send all of your feedback to opinion@dailycardinal.com.
