The Big Ten is all but guaranteed to not have a team in the new College Football Playoff (cue the muffled sobbing sound from the Midwest). More surprisingly, the SEC might not have a representative in the Playoff either this January.
Now before I cause another civil war, allow me to explain. This is not an indictment on your conference, Sun Belt states. The SEC is in no way a football wasteland like the Big Ten, but quite the opposite.
Instead, we might be witnessing the self-cannibalization of the best conference in the nation. There are just too many great teams in this league, to the point where I would be surprised if any of the 14 members escaped with one loss or less, most likely a criterion to make the Playoff.
Let’s start off with this past Saturday afternoon when No. 6 Georgia squared off at No. 24 South Carolina. With each of these teams being preseason SEC East favorites, the winner would be in the driver’s seat for the division crown (no offense, Missouri). Georgia entered this conference matchup as a favorite even though the Bulldogs were on the road, mainly because of Kenny Hill (Trill) and Texas A&M’s destruction of South Carolina in its opener and Georgia’s strong victory of a talented No. 16 Clemson team two weeks ago.
During the game, CBS even flashed a graphic showing how Georgia had the best chance to win the SEC with 25 percent odds, based on its current performance and future schedule. However, when the clock showed all zeroes, the Gamecocks had emerged victorious. Thus is life in the SEC, where no program is safe from defeat and conference hopes can be dashed in 60 minutes of game time.
Let’s switch gears for a second and take a look at the SEC West. There are seven teams in the division and five of them—LSU, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas A&M and Auburn—are ranked in the Top 10. No, that is not a typo, half of the nation’s top ten is in the SEC West.
Even on the lower end of the SEC West, undefeated Mississippi State and an Arkansas team fresh off a victory against Texas Tech could pose some problems for the big boys of the West.
Between these seven teams, there is one combined loss through three weeks, and that loss belongs to Arkansas at the hands of division foe Auburn. That is absurd. Through three weeks, the SEC West has not had a hiccup against any team outside of its division. Utter dominance.
All seven of the teams have to play each other, as well as two opponents from the east side of the division to round out what will be a meat grinder of a conference schedule. While this will definitely make for some great television, this could spell bad news for the SEC West as two losses for each team is a real possibility.
Even if all of the SEC West teams end the regular season with two losses, the big five from that division will still most likely be favored over any SEC East team. Texas A&M displayed the divisional disparity by throttling South Carolina, and unless the Gamecocks or Georgia show some major strides to close the season, the school from the East will enter the SEC championship game with at least one loss, and leave it most likely with two.
This then begs the question: Would a two-loss SEC West team still make it into the Playoff over one-loss or undefeated schools from inferior conferences? While the selection committee for the Playoff will take a subjective look at all the contenders, sliding in a two-loss team over one-loss or undefeated programs would still be a tough call.
While the Playoff is undoubtedly a better system than the BCS, it could already encounter the problem of being too small in its first season, as the absence of a SEC team looms as a real possibility. Sadly, thus is life for the SEC.
Will the nation's best conference really miss out on the Playoff? Email machhi@wisc.edu to discuss.
