This is the sixth edition of the Heisman Watch, a weekly feature tracking the candidates for college football’s most prestigious award. For last week's rankings, click here.
1. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State QB (Last Week: 1)
The Bulldogs were on a bye last week, so no reason to move the Dak Attack down.
Prescott is the nation’s premier dual-threat quarterback, with four games of at least 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. He’s on pace to record over 1,000 yards on the ground.
My concerns with Prescott stem from his susceptibility to turnovers. In his last game two weeks ago against Auburn, he threw interceptions on consecutive drives. One of those picks came in the end zone.
I’m also not sure if Mississippi State can remain at the top all season long. The Bulldogs don’t need to go undefeated for Prescott to win the Heisman, but more than one loss could derail his campaign.
Mississippi State has a rather favorable schedule ahead, but the Bulldogs do have road games with Alabama and Ole Miss looming. But for now, Prescott deserves to be the favorite.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon QB (LW: 2)
Mariota is easily the best player in college football this season. Right now, he loses out to Prescott just based on Mississippi State being No. 1 in the nation. Sometimes narratives win out over stats.
Mariota’s stats are amazing. He has 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He leads the nation in efficiency rating, is second in yards per attempt and is fourth in completion percentage.
Mariota ripped Washington last week for a season-high 336 yards. The Huskies aren’t much of a pass defense, ranking 115th nationally, but this Saturday Oregon gets a California secondary that ranks dead last, one that allows a whopping 391 passing yards per game. Expect more big numbers from Mariota.
3. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin RB (LW: 3)
Gordon is the best running back in the nation. He leads the country with an average of 174.3 rushing yards per game. On pace for nearly 2,100 yards, Gordon could boost his candidacy if the Badgers make the Big Ten championship game, giving him an extra game to put up more superb numbers.
Gordon has scored 14 total touchdowns and is averaging 7.9 yards per carry. That’s the fifth-highest mark among players who average at least 10 carries per game.
Gordon will need some help to surpass the talented players above him. Even though quarterbacks have dominated the Heisman recently, Gordon should remain one of the top three candidates provided Wisconsin doesn’t lose to another mediocre team. The Badgers get Maryland this week, and the Terrapins rank 104th in rush defense.
4. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss QB (LW: 4)
This is where the drop-off begins, as Prescott, Mariota and Gordon are lightyears ahead of Wallace in the Heisman race. It’s strange that Prescott’s narrative of being the quarterback of an upstart team from the state of Mississippi hasn’t translated to Wallace. He doesn’t get nearly the same amount of media attention as Prescott, but perhaps that’s because the Rebels started the season at No. 18 while the Bulldogs began the year unranked.
Wallace’s season has been a bit of an odd trajectory. After his first three games, he led the nation in completion percentage. In that same period, he tossed four interceptions. Since then, he’s thrown just two picks in four games while seeing his completion rate drop a full 10 percentage points.
Ole Miss faces the country’s fourth-ranked passing defense this weekend in LSU. More so than Prescott, Wallace and the Rebels need to stay in the playoff hunt if he is to win the Heisman.
5. Brett Hundley, UCLA QB (LW: 8)
The nation’s current leader in completion percentage with a 72.5 rate, Hundley has had only one game where he’s completed less than 70 percent of his passes. His best game of the year came in a September blowout of Arizona State, when he threw for 355 yards and four touchdowns on just 23 pass attempts.
Hundley is more than a checkdown quarterback, however. He ranks 10th in yards per attempt and is sixth in efficiency rating. He’s thrown only four interceptions and 13 touchdowns. Hundley is firmly entrenched in the second tier of Heisman candidates.
6. Tevin Coleman, Indiana RB (LW: 5)
I’ve been saying this all season, but no matter what Coleman does on the field, he has practically a zero percent chance of winning the Heisman simply because he plays for a 3-4 Indiana team. Only once has a Heisman winner come from a team with a losing record—Notre Dame’s Paul Hornung in 1956, when the Fighting Irish went 2-8.
Don’t expect Coleman to buck the trend. Still, he’s second only to Gordon in rushing yards per game and has the highest yards per carry in the country. He at least deserves a few votes come December.
7. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska RB (LW: 9)
Abdullah is tied for first in the nation with 16 total touchdowns. He’s scored multiple times in five of seven games and has three 200-yard performances.
Abdullah’s candidacy is discredited because of two terrible games against McNeese State and Michigan State. The Spartans have an incredible defense, so it’s hard to blame Abdullah for that game in which he carried the ball 24 times for just 45 yards. McNeese State is a different story, though.
I’m more willing to look past Melvin Gordon’s poor game against Western Illinois than Abdullah against McNeese State just because Gordon has been otherworldly lately. His one bad game seems like an anomaly. But for Abdullah to have two bad games will hurt his chances, no matter if it was against the powerful Spartan defense.
8. Blake Sims, Alabama QB (LW: Not Ranked)
Sims is the only newcomer to this week’s list. He replaces Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill. Not coincidentally, Sims and the Tide obliterated Hill’s Aggies last weekend in a 59-0 whooping.
Sims had been on the verge of making this list several times before, but hadn’t made the cut. But he’s on here now, ranking fourth in yards per attempt and fourth in efficiency rating.
As I’ve said before, team performance is crucial. Despite losing to Ole Miss, Alabama is a bona fide contender for the College Football Playoff. If the Tide can knock off Mississippi State and Auburn down the stretch, expect Sims to become a prime Heisman candidate.
9. Everett Golson, Notre Dame QB (LW: 6)
Well the Irish didn’t beat Florida State last weekend, but Golson was solid. He threw for 313 yards and three touchdowns, but he did have two interceptions, one of which came on a last-second heave on fourth-and-goal from the 18.
The loss pretty much kills Golson’s chances at winning the award. His overall numbers just aren’t that great. A 61.2 percent completion rate, mediocre 7.4 yards per attempt and an efficiency rating that ranks 36th won’t win the Heisman.
With unimpressive stats, his entire candidacy revolved around the Fighting Irish remaining undefeated. Though Notre Dame still could make it into the Playoff with one loss, that won’t really mean anything for Golson’s Heisman chances.
10. Rakeem Cato, Marshall QB (LW: 10)
Cato just set the FBS record for consecutive games with a touchdown pass, a streak of 39 games to surpass Russell Wilson. However, he doesn’t have the greatest stats, specifically his 58.3 percent completion rate.
Like every other player on this list, Cato’s chances of winning the Heisman are entirely dependent upon team performance. However, wins are even more essential for Cato considering he plays for Marshall, a Group of Five school that needs to go undefeated to remain nationally relevant.
But going undefeated seems like a foregone conclusion. Last weekend, the Thundering Herd faced a deficit for the first time all season. They wound up winning that game against Florida International, 45-13.
