No. 14 Kansas State at No. 11 Oklahoma
It’s been hard to get a read on Kansas State (2-0 Big 12, 4-1 overall) so far. The Wildcats have blown out three of their opponents by a cumulative score of 158-57.
Those three opponents, however, were Stephen F. Austin, UTEP and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders might be the worst team in the Big 12 outside of Kansas and Iowa State.
But oh wait. The Wildcats needed a desperate comeback attempt to overcome a 12-point fourth quarter deficit to defeat Iowa State on the road. At the same time, this is the same Kansas State team that shot itself in the foot against then-No. 5 Auburn in Week 4, missing three field goals and turning the ball over three times while still only losing by six.
Oklahoma (2-1, 5-1) is led by quarterback Trevor Knight. Thought to be a very intriguing player in the preseason, Knight has subsequently put up pile-of-crap numbers: 55 percent completion rate, six touchdowns, five interceptions.
The Sooners fell from the ranks of bona fide national title contender (are there any of those this year?) after they lost to TCU two weeks ago in a thoroughly exciting game.
The Big 12 is a mess this year, with only Baylor still undefeated. If Oklahoma wins, the Sooners are back in the Playoff race. If Kansas State wins, then the conference is even more muddled than it appears.
No. 21 Texas A&M at No. 7 Alabama
Doesn’t that Kenny Hill (doesn’t really deserve the Trill nickname right now) massacre of South Carolina in the season opener seem a distant memory? Texas A&M (2-2 SEC, 5-2 overall) has come crashing down from No. 6 in the land just two weeks ago to the same spot as its preseason ranking, due in large part to Hill’s decline.
The Aggies have turned the ball over 12 times this season and Hill has been responsible for eight of those. For all the yardage he puts up, Hill is far too vulnerable to giving the ball away.
The Crimson Tide (2-1, 5-1) lost to national darling Ole Miss two weeks ago, then squeaked by Arkansas last week in the definition of a hangover game. The offense has suddenly stalled, averaging 311 yards per game after totaling more than 500 in each of its first four games.
The A&M defense can’t stop anybody though, ranking 71st in total defense and allowing an average of more than 450 yards per game to its four SEC opponents.
Alabama’s defense is the only elite unit in this game, and with home field advantage, expect the Tide to win.
No. 15 Oklahoma State at No. 12 TCU
We’ll soon find out if Oklahoma State (3-0 Big 12, 5-1 overall) was ever deserving of being ranked 15th in the country. Right now I’d say no, and that the only reason the Cowboys are ranked so high is because they happen to have one loss amid this season of chaos.
Oklahoma State is ranked 30th in F/+ rating, an advanced metric that uses play-by-play outcomes to rank teams without human bias. The Cowboys just ran through the easiest part of their conference schedule—Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas, teams with a combined Big 12 record of 0-9. The moribund Jayhawks nearly pulled the upset, tying it at 20 midway through the fourth before allowing a 99-yard return on the ensuing kickoff.
The Cowboys’ true Big 12 test begins with TCU (1-1, 4-1). The Horned Frogs got hosed last week in a shootout loss to Baylor one week after knocking off Oklahoma. Quarterback Trevone Boykin isn’t the most efficient player in the country, with a mediocre 57 percent completion rate, but I’d take him over the Cowboys’ Daxx Garman. I’m calling a rebound victory for the Frogs at home.
No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Florida State
This is easily the game of the week, and not just because of the respective team rankings. This matchup has all sorts of implications on the Playoff and Heisman races.
Despite the No. 5 ranking, nobody is really taking Notre Dame (6-0) seriously... yet. Yes, the Irish knocked off Stanford, but the Cardinal has had such a difficult time scoring points this season that the win is somewhat diluted. Last week, Notre Dame allowed 43 points to a North Carolina team that has a realistic chance of going winless in the ACC.
As for Florida State (6-0), all anyone looks at are the flaws. Nearly lost to Oklahoma State in the opener? They’re vulnerable. Jameis Winston suspended against Clemson? Can’t trust him. Down by 17 to North Carolina State? Just a matter of time before the Seminoles lose.
But they’re still 6-0. This has to be most overlooked undefeated reigning national champion in history. The ‘Noles are 32nd in total offense and 43rd in total defense. Hardly spectacular, but they’re also one of the nation’s best in third down conversions (47 percent success rate) and red zone scoring (28-29, including 19 touchdowns).
Winston, for all the baggage, is still a top five quarterback in the country, talent-wise. He has a healthy matchup against a Notre Dame secondary that has yet to face a great signal caller all season. He’s managed to statistically put himself back in the Heisman race, but he has about a zero percent chance of winning it thanks to all the off-field stuff.
Meanwhile, Irish quarterback Everett Golson is a legitimate Heisman contender. His campaign has certainly been inflated thanks to media hype over an undefeated Notre Dame squad, but if he takes down the Seminoles on the road, suddenly he’s right up there with Dak Prescott and Marcus Mariota. And suddenly the Irish would be Playoff favorites.
No. 23 Stanford at No. 17 Arizona State
A lesson from the first half of the season is never go to sleep while the Pac-12 games are still ongoing. Some of the craziest games of the season have come from the west coast, including Anu Solomon’s 47-yard Hail Mary to beat Cal; Mike Bercovici’s 46-yard Hail Mary to beat USC; and Jared Goff and Connor Halliday combining for 1,261 passing yards (defense need not apply!) in the same game.
I’m banking on something mind-blowing like that to happen in this matchup. Arizona State (2-1 Pac-12, 4-1 overall) and Stanford (2-1, 4-2) are both in the middle of a jumbled conference, where no one is undefeated and eight teams have one loss. Whether this game ends up having the requisite Pac-12 excitement remains to be seen, but I recommend keeping an eye on what’s sure to be an intense race to the conference championship.
