This is the 12th edition of the Heisman Watch, a weekly feature tracking the candidates for college football’s most prestigious award. For last week’s rankings, click here.
1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon QB (Last Week: 1)
Well for all intents and purposes, Mariota clinched the Heisman last week. I thought maybe Oregon State could pull off something funky and knock Mariota down a peg. I thought wrong.
I mean, holy crap. All season long, I looked at Mariota’s numbers like, “Hey these are pretty impressive.” But it’s time to stop saying that Mariota simply is the best quarterback this season. He’s genuinely having one of the best collegiate quarterback years ever.
His 190.2 efficiency rating is just behind Russell Wilson’s single-season record (set at Wisconsin!) of 191.78. He has thrown 36 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Considering he’s tossed multiple TDs in every game this year and the Ducks have at least two more games left, it’s probably safe to say he’s going to reach 40 passing touchdowns. That would make him the 28th player to do so (I’m including Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty, who already has reached the mark this season).
Of the 27 existing 40-touchdown seasons, only nine of those quarterbacks have also posted single-digit interception totals. Only three of those nine seasons have occurred at a Power Five school.
I highly doubt Mariota throws eight picks between now and the end of the year, so make him the fourth person of a truly spectacular club.
2. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin RB (LW: 2)
Any other year. Any other year, and Gordon runs away with this award. But when a historically great quarterback and historically great running back face off, history tells us the quarterback wins out, considering 12 of the past 13 non-vacated Heismans have gone to signal callers.
Like Mariota, Gordon is having an amazing season. He’s totaled 2,260 yards on the ground. If Gordon meets his season average of 188 rushing yards per game in Wisconsin’s final two contests, he’ll break Barry Sanders’ official single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards.
But wait, you say. Sanders’ official record may be 2,628 yards, but the NCAA didn’t include bowl game stats in official totals until 2002. If they did, Sanders’ actual total would be 2,850 yards. And even if you include that, he did it in just 12 games, compared to Gordon’s would-be 14.
Well even if Sanders used two fewer games to record that total, he carried the ball 373 times. Gordon currently has 283 attempts and is averaging roughly 24 carries per game. He won’t come close to running the ball as much as Sanders did.
Gordon has a higher yards-per-carry average than Sanders, but the difference is negligible so I don’t want to prorate Gordon’s numbers and say he would certainly surpass Sanders. But it’s something to consider. Just like Mariota, Gordon has put together an all-time great year.
3. Amari Cooper, Alabama WR (LW: 9)
I never should have doubted you, Amari. Throughout my Heisman Watch series, I have consistently ranked Bama quarterback Blake Sims above Cooper. Quarterbacks win this award all the time, wide receivers hardly ever do and there are a handful of wideouts who are putting up as good of stats as Cooper (namely, West Virginia’s Kevin White and Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins).
All three of those rationales still hold true but last Saturday in the Iron Bowl, I realized how dumb it was to give them such merit. Sims’ limitations were exposed (three picks) and Cooper went all Audie Murphy on the Auburn secondary. Thirteen catches for 224 yards and three touchdowns—a seminal receiver like Cooper saved his best performance of the season for a crucial rivalry game for the Crimson Tide. That’s a Heisman moment.
But still, Cooper’s season doesn’t quite have the same historical prominence as Mariota’s and Gordon’s. He should be a Heisman finalist, but I don’t see him leapfrogging the players above him.
Intermission: This is the point where I tell you none of the following players have legitimate shots at winning the Heisman, but since I’m OCD about the consistency and integrity of this here Heisman Watch series, I forge onward to give you the No. 4-10 candidates.
4. Trevone Boykin, TCU QB (LW: 6)
Boykin will probably be a Heisman finalist. He’s the face of a TCU team that’s poised to make the Playoff. Boykin has some solid numbers to be sure—26 touchdowns and only six interceptions, eight rushing touchdowns—but he has some terrible efficiency numbers. He ranks 42nd in efficiency rating, 57th in completion percentage and 38th in yards per pass attempt. Not exactly Heisman-worthy.
Now I’ll admit that I considered giving my intermission after I wrote about Boykin, and I think a lot of regional voters with Big 12 bias will give him plenty of consideration. But those efficiency numbers are a killer, and if Boykin actually hoists the Heisman Dec. 13, it will be absolute robbery.
5. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State QB (LW: 3)
I feel really bad for Barrett, who broke his ankle last week against Michigan and will miss the rest of the season. A dark horse Heisman candidate going into last week, Barrett’s hopes are pretty much finished because of his injury.
Barrett did a fantastic job this year, taking over for injured star Braxton Miller right before the season, withstanding a humiliating loss to Virginia Tech early on and getting the Buckeyes to the precipice of the Playoff.
Barrett, who was just named Big Ten Freshman of the Year, now enters the offseason with plenty of uncertainty. Miller could come back and reclaim his job, forcing Barrett to the bench. After a season like this, he doesn’t deserve such a fate.
6. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State QB (LW: 5)
At one point, I considered Prescott to be the Heisman leader. He had taken down LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn, bringing Mississippi State to the No. 1 ranking in the nation.
Then came the Alabama game Nov. 15, when he threw three interceptions in a 25-20 defeat. And last week against Ole Miss, he had a mediocre performance as the Bulldogs lost the Egg Bowl and a chance at making the Playoff.
Give Prescott credit for one of Mississippi State’s best seasons ever. But also give me credit for helping my team secure a touch football Turkey Bowl win last week. That doesn’t mean I’m winning the Heisman.
7. Bryce Petty, Baylor QB (LW: 10)
Throwing 25 touchdowns versus only five interceptions is pretty good. What’s not pretty good is getting outplayed by Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes last week as Baylor barely escaped a devastating upset. Had you ever heard of Patrick Mahomes before I just name-dropped him? No? Because neither had I.
8. Brett Hundley, UCLA QB (LW: 4)
Come on, Hundley. All year long I proclaimed your name as the Heisman race’s ultimate underdog, a preseason candidate whose slow start knocked you off the national radar before a second-half renaissance got you back in the conversation. Then you turned into a living, breathing embodiment of human waste against Stanford. Thanks a lot.
9. Cody Kessler, USC QB (LW: Not Ranked)
Back when Irish quarterback Everett Golson was begrudgingly worth including in my Heisman series (LOL those were the days), I didn’t exactly make it a secret that I hate Notre Dame. When Kessler trounced the Irish to the tune of 372 yards and six touchdowns while completing 80 percent of his passes, I absolutely had to include him, if only for purely self-serving reasons.
So get back in the Heisman rankings, Kessler! You’re my new folk hero.
10. Tevin Coleman, Indiana RB (LW: NR)
First I have to give a shoutout to Florida State’s Jameis Winston for his four-interception debacle last week. Thanks to that rancid performance, I can finally do what I’ve wanted to do for the past month—remove Winston from my rankings.
As for Coleman, can someone, anyone, please vote for this man? I don’t care if it’s a fifth place vote, just give him a few points. He’s the only other running back who can statistically challenge Gordon this year (2,036 yards, 7.5 yards per carry).
He just happens to play for Indiana, the black hole of the Big Ten. But please, can someone disregard that and promise to give Coleman a courtesy vote? That’s all I ask.
