Walking into Madison Fresh Market the other day, I noticed they had a 2/$5 deal on gallons of milk. Naturally, I got both gallons, because deals where I can get two amazing and equal products at the same price don’t arise often. The Green Bay Packers are faced with the same situation here, but instead of dairy, they are looking at wide receivers. With Jordy Nelson already inking his bargain payday of just over $39 million over four years, his wideout partner Randall Cobb is up next. Many outside and inside of the organization feared Cobb would cost too much to retain after his breakout season, but sources on Monday indicate that Cobb only desires a deal similar to Nelson’s. If that’s the case, Ted Thompson is walking out of the negotiation room with two under-30, No. 1 receivers at just over $18 million per year combined.
While Jordy Nelson is the team’s No. 1 receiver on the depth chart, he and Cobb truly function as more of a 1a. and 1b. Cobb is the perfect peanut butter to Nelson’s jelly. If you like touchdowns, well look no further for the league’s top touchdown receiving duo, with the two of them combining for 25 total six-pointers. If that’s not enough to prove that they were one of the best, if not the best, receiving tag teams in the country, here’s another stat to sway you: The two of them tied for third in the NFL this season in total first downs, both at 71. That combined 142 was, once again, top in the league. With Nelson being one of the league’s premier deep threats, a slot receiver who can take advantage of all of the openings underneath is vital. The lightning quick and sneaky Cobb fits that role perfectly, but he is much more than just an underneath slot weapon.
The No. 1 job of a wide receiver is to catch balls thrown his way. Well Cobb has that attribute checked off his list. Out of 30 receivers who were targeted more than 120 times, Cobb ranked second this year with a phenomenal 71.7 catch percentage. Only Chicago’s Matt Forte, a running back who specializes in short flats, screens, and dump offs, had a higher percent at 78.5. In an offense marked by precision and instincts, Cobb proved to be Aaron Rodger’s most reliable target, and arguably the most counted on in the league. Cobb also came through on the game’s most important down, catching 24 passes for first downs on third down this year, tied for the third best mark with his receiving buddy Nelson. It would truly be a reprehensible crime to separate these two.
For my closing argument on why the Packers need to keep Cobb, I present to Judge Ted Thompson some eye opening advanced stats collected by Football Outsiders. Defense adjusted value over average (DVOA), measures how valuable a player is on a given play, utilizing a player’s success rate in various situations. Well, by that account, no receiver was more valuable on any given play than Randall Cobb this year, the No. 1 receiver DVOA of 35.5 percent. While that statistic does tend to over value slot receivers who tend to get shorter, more catchable passes, defense-adjusted yards over replacement (DYAR) is utilized to make up for DVOA’s deficiencies. By measuring each receiver’s total value, it takes a more cumulative approach to each receiver’s contributions rather than on a per play basis. Another stat, another high ranking from Cobb, the NFL’s fourth ranked receiver according to DYAR at 478. Only Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, and you guessed it, Jordy Nelson had a higher number in that category.
Re-signing Cobb really should be a no brainer at this point. He proved his worth this year as a versatile and reliable weapon. The guy can even play out of the backfield, lining up at running back and causing even more matchup nightmares. To top it off, the guy does not even turn 25 until a couple weeks before the season starts. Getting an already elite wide receiver who theoretically hasn’t even reached his physical prime at $9 million a year is an absolute steal. Ted Thompson, let me introduce you to my friends ink and paper, start putting one on the other, and get this deal done please.
