Working to become the top dog in the Big Ten is a tiring task, but it carries a reward UW will be grateful to have as it embarks upon the next step of becoming one of this program’s great teams.
The No. 6 Badgers (16-2 Big Ten, 28-3 overall) enter the Big Ten Tournament as the odds-on favorite to win their first conference tourney since 2008 and will begin their run Friday against the winner of Thursday’s game between Michigan and Illinois. Not only will a banner to raise be on the line, but so will a shot at a valuable 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
There are plenty of reasons to think Wisconsin should march through the tournament, given its 16-2 conference record, where the only two losses occurred on the road and one without Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky.
Advanced rankings love the Badgers, with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings placing UW at No. 3 in the country and Ken Pomeroy’s having them at fourth. Las Vegas odds also agree, as betting site Bovada.lv has set the Badgers’ odds to win the Big Ten Tournament at 5/7 (curiously, the team with the second best odds is 6-seed Ohio State; Vegas must really love D’Angelo Russell).
However, to play devil’s advocate, it’s easy to see a scenario in which the Badgers’ odds are in question, as the tournament is structured to exacerbate the team’s biggest weakness: depth. In seven of UW’s last eight games, every starter has played more than 30 minutes thanks to an extremely short bench. While that’s acceptable in conference play when the team sees two games a week, it could spell trouble when it has to play three games in three days.
UW athletic trainer Henry Perez-Guerra told the Wisconsin State Journal that senior guard Traevon Jackson is “unlikely” to play in the conference tournament, leaving redshirt sophomore Zak Showalter as the only backup guard on the squad who has seen real rotation minutes.
Simultaneous cold streaks from senior forward Duje Dukan and sophomore forward Vitto Brown have also forced Bo Ryan to lean on his starting frontcourt more than any team in the conference.
That said, the Badgers also see as favorable a path to the finals as one could expect for a 1-seed in a major conference tournament. Wisconsin didn’t lose to a single team on its half of the bracket in the regular season, and won all games against them by an average of 14 points.
Meanwhile, 2-seed Maryland will face the winner of Northwestern-Indiana Friday and the likely victor in that matchup, Indiana, beat the Terrapins by 19 in a Jan. 22 game. After that, the Terrapins would play the winner of Ohio State (assuming the Buckeyes win Thursday) and Michigan State, who have combined to win the last five Big Ten Tournaments.
As rough as the starters have had to work, as fatigued as they must be after every game, it is likely worth it to not have to deal with the two-step minefield Maryland will have to navigate to reach the finals.
If the Badgers do win, they will certainly be one of the teams in consideration for one of four No. 1 seeds Selection Sunday. Looking around the rest of the country, No. 1 Kentucky is a certainty to grab one, with regular season ACC champion Virginia also probable. No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Villanova would likely sew up the remaining top seeds if they win their respective conference tournaments, so UW will need to win its tournament and have one of those two lose in order to have a real shot.
That’s looking ahead though. All eyes on the Badgers will be focused on winning their first tournament trophy in seven years.
