When Traevon Jackson went down early in the second half against Rutgers, Wisconsin looked lost. They were outscored by 17 in the half while blowing a 12-point halftime lead, prompting rumors they may not be the top dog in the conference.
In the 12 games since sophomore Bronson Koenig took over the starting spot, however, the Badgers have continued to look like a Big Ten favorite. During that span they have gone 11-1 and are now a single win away from clinching an outright conference title.
Koenig’s play during that stretch has turned some heads — averaging 11.3 points, 2.5 assists and just 1.0 (!) turnover in 36.3 minutes per game.
His numbers as a starter in Big Ten play are eerily similar to Jackson’s: 12.3 points, 3 assists and 1.7 turnovers in 31 minutes per game. So similar, in fact, that many are arguing that Koenig should retain the starting role even with Jackson fully healthy.
Those numbers don’t tell the whole story though.
The Wisconsin offense has been phenomenally efficient this season, even without their veteran point guard. They’re scoring 122.1 points per 100 possessions in conference games, the most efficient Big Ten offense in over 10 years. You’d think that Koenig, an offensively minded player, would drive that efficiency more than Jackson, right? Wrong.
With Jackson starting at point guard, the Badgers were scoring a surreal 124.2 points per 100 possessions, while the Koenig-led Badgers score “just” 121.3. That’s still wonderful efficiency, but it delegitimizes the argument that Koenig provides a better offensive spark.
By most standard metrics (and the eye-test), Koenig is the more efficient offensive player. He’s got the edge in career field-goal percentage (42.5% to 40.4%), 3-point percentage (36.9% to 33.3%) and free-throw percentage (83.3% to 78.1%). So why is the Badger offense posting better numbers with Jackson starting?
It starts with getting to the hoop. For three years now, Jackson has showcased his athleticism by blowing past defenders and attacking the basket. Despite his uninspiring numbers from deep, he’s shooting a cool 52.2% from 2-point range this year.
Koenig has a hard time getting by defenders, and it shows: he shoots just 43.4% on 2-pointers, lowest of any of the Badgers who play meaningful minutes. This implies Koenig either works more as shooter in the mid-range, a shot selection routinely shown to be inefficient, or is simply worse at getting to the rim than Jackson.
The sophomore has also struggled offensively against better teams. In games against teams ranked in the Top 50 of BPI, Koenig shot 32.1% from the field. That’s astonishingly low for a player as well-regarded on offense as Koenig.
That being said, most of those games have come since Jackson’s injury. Without a legitimate backup at point guard (with all due respect to Zak Showalter), Koenig has played more minutes than anyone else. It is, quite frankly, a miracle his numbers are where they are given his immense usage.
Of course, offense is only half of the game. And when it comes to defense, there’s really no contest. Koenig simply hasn’t shown the ability to corral athletic guards, and the Big Ten has quite a few.
In Big Ten play with Jackson, the Badgers gave up just 98.2 points per 100 possessions. During Koenig’s tenure as a starter, however, they’ve given up 104.1.
Against Maryland last Tuesday, they really could have used an extra perimeter defender, as Dez Wells lit them up to the tune of 26 points, four assists and zero turnovers.
With Josh Gasser stuck on freshman sensation Melo Trimble for most of the night, Bo Ryan knew he couldn’t assign Koenig to Wells, so the Terrapin star got a lot of isolation looks against bigger, slower defenders. Jackson likely would have had the speed and agility to keep up with a guy like Wells, and not having him available hurt the Badgers.
Koenig has been stellar for Wisconsin with Jackson sidelined, but he’s most effective when he’s on the second team. The Badger bench used to be a big advantage, averaging 10 points per game. Since Koenig was thrust into a starting role, however, they score only 5.33.
For the Badgers to have any type of success in the NCAA Tournament, they need Jackson back, whether or not he’s starting. He provides solid defense, great athleticism and veteran leadership. With him on the court, this team could be unstoppable in March Madness.
