Two weeks of college football are in the books, and the playoff picture is still as murky as ever. No. 1 Ohio State has looked vulnerable in back-to-back first halves, but then looked invincible again down the stretch of both of its first two games. No. 15 Ole Miss has obliterated two unsuspecting foes, scoring 76 and 73 points to open the season. No. 3 TCU got back to its old ways after a week one scare against Minnesota by torching Stephen F. Austin to the tune of 70 points.
Although the playoff picture still might be unclear, two weeks of data starts to give us a better idea of how good each team really is. Some teams that looked bad in their first game, like TCU and No. 24 Wisconsin, rebounded with blowouts. Others, like No. 23 Northwestern and No. 19 BYU, proved their remarkable Week 1 wins weren’t just flukes.
The graph at the bottom of the page shows each team in the top 50 of ESPN’s Football Power Index in terms of points scored and points allowed per game. The size of a team’s bubble represents their FPI score—a larger circle means a better rating, and vice versa. The teams to pay attention to are the teams in the bottom right quadrant, which have scored a lot of points and given up very few. Two of the most dominant teams from the first few weeks, No. 14 Georgia Tech and Ole Miss, will be tested in the coming weeks with games against No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 2 Alabama, respectively.
Northwestern shocked the college football world with a stunning upset of Stanford in week one, then proceeded to shut out Eastern Illinois, 41-0. They have an upcoming matchup with another school that clawed its way into the top 50 FPI this week in Duke.
BYU continued its promising start to the season despite losing superstar quarterback Taysom Hill for the year in their first game. After a Hail-Mary win in its opener, it knocked off Boise State in their second, a team that many expected to go undefeated.
No. 17 Texas A&M has also looked impressive so far this season, opening the year with two blowouts, including a dominant Week 1 win over highly touted Arizona State, who you’ll find in the top left of the graph along with Texas and Louisville, both of whom have disappointed this season.
Thanks to its massive rout of Miami (OH), Wisconsin climbed back to the mean in both points and points allowed per game. They made the third largest jump in FPI of any school in the country this week, up four points to 13.5, good for 23rd in the nation.
Other top movers within the Big Ten include Iowa and Illinois, both of whom had impressive wins against in-state rivals.
No. 18 Auburn tumbled down the rankings due to an overtime scare from FCS opponent Jacksonville State. Arkansas, meanwhile, fell completely out of the rankings after mustering just 12 points against Toledo. Interestingly, No. 5 Baylor dropped 2.9 points in FPI despite a dominant 66-31 win over Lamar.
It’s always hard to gauge how good teams are this early in the season, especially with many playing weak opponents before their conference schedule starts. Still, asserting dominance early and hitting the ground running when the real test comes can be an effective way to start the year.
