Monday night, Democrats across Wisconsin cheered as Gov. Scott Walker officially announced he was ending his 2016 presidential campaign. The decision came after recent polls showed Walker with less than 1 percent of the vote. However, if you are a Democrat, now is not the time to be celebrating. In fact, you should be bracing yourself for the worst. It all comes down to one man: Marco Rubio.
With the suspension of Walker’s campaign, it appears as though Rubio may have a fairly clear path to the White House. Current polling shows the Republican race is currently being dominated by three anti-establishment candidates: Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina and Dr. Ben Carson. Although their campaigns have been strong up to this point, they don’t have the resources or campaign infrastructure to steam through to the end. Recent polling suggests that Trump and Carson have already began their slow downward spiral in percentage points. Fiorina, who has primarily seen her numbers boosted by strong debate performances, simply doesn’t have the voter base and campaign infrastructure. Rubio, on the other hand, has seen a steady increase in poll numbers–now polling at percentages three times higher than his numbers at the beginning of September. Rubio has also had some of the strongest debate performances out of any of the candidates. Data from NBC and The Wall Street Journal shows more Republicans could see themselves voting for Rubio than any other candidate. Rubio has a very high ceiling for his campaign to grow, all he needs is the resources to take advantage of this opportunity.
Walker’s candidacy was overdue to be put down, diseased and limping toward the first caucus. Since Walker is now out of the running, Rubio has officially become the Republican establishment candidate. As a result, many of the big donors and supporters of the Walker campaign will come running to Rubio with open arms. Rubio’s campaign, mere hours after Walker’s dropout, secured the endorsement of Walker’s New Hampshire state co-chair. As stated earlier, Rubio has a campaign infrastructure unmatched by some of the other candidates in the race, especially in the current top three. This infrastructure will continue to grow as Rubio picks up the pieces left behind by Walker. I would not be surprised if Rubio monopolizes on the vacuum of the Koch Brothers’ financial backing. Although Walker was the Koch Brothers’ “Golden Boy,” it is known that they have a lot of support for Rubio due to his similarity with Walker’s respect for the Republican Party’s traditional stances. Compare that to Jeb Bush, who in the recent week, has come under fire for some his views, and as a result lost some of his top donors. Rubio’s more establishment-friendly stance gives him a benefit over Bush as well.
Although winning the nomination may be clear, what about the general? If you’re a Democrat, you do not want Rubio to be the Republican nominee. Rubio, unlike all other Republican candidates, has strong appeal to three of the demographics most important to Hillary Clinton’s campaign: youth, women and Hispanics. He could also carry his crucial home state of Florida for the Republicans, making it that much easier to clinch the nomination. Looking at current polling data, Rubio has one of the strongest matchups against Hillary Clinton in the general election compared to other potential Republican nominees.
On top of that, although the polling is still limited, Rubio has the best matchup against both Vice President Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders out of all Republican candidates. If, or perhaps when, Rubio becomes the Republican nominee, Democrats are going to have an awfully hard time defeating the well-spoken Cuban-American with a “million-dollar smile.”
The one chink in Rubio’s armor is his slow start, and lack of a voter base to cannibalize from Walker. Few establishment candidates can take advantage of their head start over Rubio, but dog-piling on him may be the most effective way to halt his rampant growth. As the candidate pool continues to grow slimmer, they must be ready to take advantage of any weakness Rubio or their other competitors will show.
Once again, now is not the time for Democrats to be jumping for joy. As primary voters notice and slowly gravitate towards Marco Rubio, the Democrats are about to face their worst nightmare. Walker’s exit opens the door for the one man who has the strongest potential of foiling the Democrats’ plan for the White House. In January 2017, we may be welcoming President Marco Rubio.
Ben Miller is a freshman majoring in political science. Please send all comments to opinion@dailycardinal.com.
