This week’s graph charts offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, with bubble size representing Football Power Index. Teams in the top right quadrant have shown exceptional efficiency on both sides of the ball, and that’s likely where the four playoff teams will come from.
A popular preseason CFP favorite, the Oregon Ducks have had a rough start to the season. They’ve given up an average of 40.8 points per game, the 11th-worst mark in the country, and transfer quarterback Vernon Adams looks lost far too often on the field. They’ve joined Auburn as one of the biggest disappointments of this season, and although they probably won’t steal that crown from the Tigers, they did fall below them in FPI this week thanks to a gargantuan 6.7 point drop, the second largest of any team this year.
No. 10 Utah jumped as high as Oregon fell, and now finds itself in the coveted upper-right corner. The Utes demolished the Ducks 62-20, and are looking like a playoff contender. Their dominant win over the former No. 13 team in the country earned them a No. 1 vote in the AP Poll, a claim only No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Michigan State and No. 3 Ole Miss can make. This is their highest AP ranking in nearly five years.
No. 22 Michigan blanked BYU 31-0, its biggest shutout win in three years. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has had a surprisingly good start to his tenure in Ann Arbor, and a close loss to Utah a few weeks back is suddenly looking very impressive.
No. 4 TCU still hasn’t done anything to justify its high ranking this season, as it won yet another game by a slim margin. Its near-average defensive efficiency rating is misleading, as it’s benefitted from playing Minnesota’s anemic offense and hapless 0-4 Stephen F. Austin.
Their opponent, Texas Tech, continued to look very strong, and are top in the country in offensive efficiency, although their defense ranks outside the top 100. They have another tough test coming up against No. 5 Baylor, which boasts the fifth-most efficient offense in the nation.
No. 7 UCLA knocked Arizona out of the Top 25 by virtue of a 56-30 thrashing in Tucson, continuing its steady rise up the rankings. Its College Football Playoff hopes will likely come down to its final two games of the season against Utah and No. 17 USC.
Indiana continued its non-conference dominance with a tight win over Wake Forest. It has yet to receive a single vote to be in the Top 25, but after it takes down No. 1 Ohio State Saturday it should get some of the respect that it deserves. The Hoosier offense has been more efficient than No. 19 Wisconsin, Oregon, Georgia Tech and the Buckeyes, four teams known for their offensive prowess. That being said, they haven’t played a team in the top 50 FPI.
Any offseason talk of the fall of the SEC has been silenced by these first four weeks of football. There are seven SEC teams in the AP Top 25 this week, and there should probably be eight given that Tennessee’s 2-2 record does not reflect how well it’s played so far, blowing out Bowling Green and Western Carolina while losing by one score to both No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 25 Florida.
Nearly half of the teams in the upper-right quadrant of the graph hail from the SEC, and it’s beginning to look more and more like there will be two—or even three—SEC teams in the College Football Playoff. No. 8 Georgia, No. 9 LSU and Ole Miss have all looked dominant in the first four weeks.
