Defense wins championships. It’s an old adage, but one that has withstood the test of time. Over the past decade, ignoring Auburn’s sieve of a defense in 2010, NCAA Championship teams have had, on average, the fifth-best defense in the country.
In light of that, it’s time to start paying attention to No. 13 Northwestern. The Wildcats are no strangers to hot starts; 2015 marks the fourth time in eight seasons they’ve started 5-0. But this year’s team has the makings of a real contender.
In its three previous 5-0 starts, Northwestern gave up an average of 17.1 points and 357.1 yards per game. Those already-middling defenses promptly crumbled in Big Ten play, finishing with averages of 23.6 points and 382.3 yards per game. In those 15 games, they had no shutouts and no wins against ranked teams. The 2015 Wildcats have given up just seven points and 247.4 yards per game, with two shutouts and a 16-6 embarrassment of No. 16 Stanford. They have the second-most efficient defense in the country according to ESPN, and a less-than-terrifying conference schedule ahead of them. They have a tough test this Saturday against No. 18 Michigan in Ann Arbor, and the result there will say a lot about how good these two teams really are.
The Indiana Hoosiers have finally begun to receive the respect they deserve in FPI, scoring a positive ranking for the first time this season after pushing No. 1 Ohio State to its absolute limits in a 27-34 loss. This Saturday, they’ll march into Beaver Stadium and trounce Penn State to get back to their winning ways before getting another shot at a massive upset three weeks from now when they head to East Lansing to take down No. 4 Michigan State.
No. 11 Florida continued its meteoric rise through the AP Rankings, up from No. 25 last week thanks to a dominant 38-10 win over then-No. 3 Ole Miss. The Gators dismantled the top FPI team in the country, giving them a 3.8-point FPI boost to bring their score to 18.2, the 14th-highest mark in the country. Their strength of record, an ESPN metric that measures both how strong the opponents of a team have been and by how much they’ve beaten them, is tops in the nation. Not bad for a team that, just two weeks ago, received only seven AP votes.
When the Gators last won a national championship in 2008, they did so thanks to a superstar quarterback and a strong defense. This year’s team boasts a top-25 defense and a very solid quarterback. Although Will Grier certainly isn’t Tim Tebow (at least he isn’t NFL Tim Tebow), he might be the player to launch Florida football back into the national spotlight.
Speaking of the national spotlight, it’s about time to shine it on one of the most underappreciated teams in the country in No. 17 USC. How the Trojans have remained outside the AP top 10 is a true mystery, as they rank second in FPI and first in overall efficiency. They have an astonishingly efficient offense, second only to No. 3 Baylor. And that’s not to mention that they’ve played a much more difficult schedule than the Bears.
As much as it hurts to admit it, No. 8 Alabama might be the best team in the country again. Ignore its AP ranking for a moment; it’s fourth in FPI and second in overall efficiency, and it has dominant wins over two ranked teams. In their lone loss against No. 13 Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide fell by just six points despite turning the ball over five more times than the Rebels.
Far fewer teams remain in the coveted upper-right quadrant with Ole Miss, No. 23 Cal, West Virginia, NC State, No. 4 Michigan State and Tennessee dropping out. Still, the mighty SEC lays claim to five of the ten teams in that quadrant, cementing their status as the best conference in football. There is still a glimmer of hope for other conferences, though; for the first time in five years, no SEC team is ranked in the top five of the AP Poll. The top five features two teams each from the Big Ten and the Big 12, two notoriously top-heavy conferences.
The playoff picture is starting to look like a race for the SEC and the Pac-12, the begrudging admittance of an undefeated Ohio State and the winner of a matchup between Baylor and No. 2 TCU in late November. Two of those three teams will almost certainly make the playoffs, but the SEC and the Pac-12 remain wide open.
