Frank Kaminsky was the best player in Wisconsin basketball history. By the time he left for the NBA, he ranked ninth all-time in total points, eighth in field goals, seventh in field-goal percentage, first in blocks, 11th in rebounds and, believe it or not, 11th in assist-to-turnover ratio. All this despite playing nearly 500 fewer minutes than anyone in the top 10. He played just 8.9 minutes per game in his first two seasons with the Badgers.
So how do you replace a player of that caliber? Not surprisingly, it isn’t easy. Since 1996, 52 teams in the six major conferences have lost a player that averaged at least 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, like Kaminsky did in his final season.
Of those teams, nine had either a top-three recruiting class or another player waiting in the wings that had averaged similar numbers. The remaining 43 teams bear a striking resemblance to the Badgers, and none of them fared all that well the next season. Only seven of those teams won more than 70 percent of their games the year they lost their superstar.
On average, teams that lost a Kaminsky-like player won 11.9 percent fewer games and had a smaller scoring margin by 4.3 points than their previous season. For Wisconsin, that projects to a 21-8 regular season record.
That’s not a bad record by any standards, but it’s a far cry from the 53-9 record the Badgers have experienced over the past two seasons. In order for them to maintain their recent, unprecedented dominance, someone will need to step up.
The most obvious answer is junior forward Nigel Hayes, who improved in nearly every statistical category from his already-impressive freshman year. The most noticeable improvement he made was in three-point shooting. Hayes didn’t attempt a single three pointer his freshman year, but made 39.6 percent of his 101 attempts last season. He’s averaged 15.9 points per 40 minutes in his two-year career despite playing alongside arguably the most dominant offensive player in college basketball. He has a career average of 7.1 rebounds per 40 minutes.
According to kenpom.com, Hayes’ offensive rating of 123.8 ranked 40th in the country out of 2,184 qualifying players. He also posted the best offensive rebounding rate on the team, so his contribution could improve dramatically in the absence of Kaminsky.
The real wildcard is redshirt freshman forward Ethan Happ. Happ averaged an eye-popping 33 points and 15 rebounds in his senior year of high school, but chose to redshirt in his first season in Madison. He’s put on 35 pounds of muscle since his high school days, and looks ready to be a steady contributor for the Badgers. He’ll likely be thrust into the starting lineup to begin the season, and will almost certainly be a regular starter by the time conference play starts.
Losing a superstar is never easy to overcome, and Wisconsin lost two this offseason in Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. History is not on the Badgers’ side; the last time they lost their leader in both points and rebounds per game was when Brian Butch graduated in 2008, and they finished the following season 20-13 and unranked. Someone will have to step up for this surprisingly young Wisconsin team, and it could be anyone.
