Back in early December, few people would’ve predicted that No. 19 Indiana would be first in the Big Ten standings at this point in the season.
Though the Hoosiers (7-0 Big Ten, 17-3 overall) came into this season with lofty expectations, they stumbled out of the gates, losing to Wake Forest and UNLV at the Maui Invitational and were blown out by Duke on their way to a disappointing 5-3 start.
Calls for head coach Tom Crean to be canned reached a fevered pitch amongst the Indiana faithful and a once promising season seemed doomed before it ever really had a chance to start.
However, since their loss to the Blue Devils, the Hoosiers have won 12 consecutive games and are 7-0 in Big Ten play for the first time since 1993. Granted, Indiana hasn’t had the toughest conference slate up to this point (its opponents are a combined 72-70 this season), but it has won in dominating fashion several times.
The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory in conference play is 15.1, which includes a 25-point win over Ohio State, a 34-point win over Illinois and a 32-point win over Northwestern.
Though they only eked out a one-point victory over the Badgers (3-4, 11-9) at Assembly Hall back on Jan. 5, all three of the aforementioned blowout victories have come since then.
“We saw what [Indiana] could do at their place, and I thought we had chances there to be able to tie or if we would have converted better at the line and in the paint, hopefully maybe we would have had a different outcome. But a team—Tom's got them playing extremely well, and they're very confident offensively, and they've improved defensively,” UW interim head coach Greg Gard said Monday at his weekly press conference. “Definitely a more confident team, a team that's grown individually and collectively over the last two or three weeks since we saw them.”
Despite losing sophomore guard Justin Blackmon, Jr. to a knee injury that could leave him sidelined for the rest of the season, the Hoosiers have buckled down and improved on both sides of the ball.
Indiana currently ranks 18th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, which doesn’t come as much of a surprise for a team that has offensive weapons like senior guard Yogi Ferrell (17.1 points per game), junior forward Troy Williams (13.1 points per game) and freshman forward Thomas Bryant (11.7 points per game) at its disposal.
Though Blackmon is excellent offensively, his play on defense has been a lightning rod for criticism for fans. And it’s on that side of the ball where this Indiana team has improved the most since his injury in late December.
Defense has been an Achilles’ heel for Crean’s teams throughout much of his tenure in Bloomington (they ranked 214th in the nation in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings last year), and the start of this season was no exception. The Hoosiers were a complete mess on defense, ranking below 100 in the KenPom ratings at the start of Big Ten play.
But since Blackmon went down and sophomore guard Robert Johnson took over his spot in the lineup, their defensive rating has shot up all the way to 46th in the country. Obviously losing Blackmon wasn’t beneficial to Indiana, but it did allow Crean to play around with his rotations in a way that emphasized defense more.
As a result, the Hoosiers have improved significantly defensively without sacrificing much of their offensive efficiency, leaving Crean with a more well-rounded basketball team.
But while Indiana has retooled itself into a Big Ten title contender, Wisconsin is also a team that’s continually improving under Greg Gard.
The Badgers finally broke through in their last home game, defeating Michigan State on a late bucket from redshirt freshman forward Ethan Happ. UW has had to rely less heavily on Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes in recent weeks, thanks in large part to Happ, who has been named the Big Ten Freshman of the Week two weeks in a row, and increased bench contributions, especially from freshman forward Alex Illikainen.
Illikainen saw very limited action under Bo Ryan, but is averaging 17.3 minutes since Gard took over. In fact, his best outing came in Wisconsin’s last game, a 66-60 win over Penn State, where he scored 9 points on 4-of-7 shooting and recorded career highs in minutes (26) and rebounds (seven).
Whereas Illikainen had difficulty finding a rhythm in his game early on due to his sporadic playing time, he believes his increased role has allowed him to begin to flourish and become a major contributor.
“It’s been a lot easier [to find a rhythm],” Illikainen said. “Coming off the bench and being able to stay in there for awhile, get my game going, it’s a lot easier and it makes me more confident because I know I’m out there for awhile and don’t have two minutes to prove myself. It’s made me a lot more confident in my game.”
In Wisconsin’s first game against Indiana, Illikainen saw only five minutes of action, his lowest total under Gard. But with the way he’s performed as of late, it’s a safe assumption that he’ll play a significant role in the Badgers’ quest for their 14th straight win over Indiana at the Kohl Center and their first three-game winning streak of the year.
Wisconsin came close to upending the Hoosiers in their first meeting this year, but it ended as just another entry in a string of agonizing close losses this season. But with a dramatic win over Michigan State under their belt, Illikainen believes the Badgers will be better prepared should they find themselves in yet another game that comes down to the wire.
“It just shows that we can finish those games out,” Illikainen said of the win over Michigan State. “We were just on the wrong side a couple times. We know we can do it. We’ve just got to play our game and finish when it comes time to.”
Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. Tuesday night at the Kohl Center.
