Editor's note: With just over a week left in the regular season, Wisconsin's seeding in the Big Ten Tournament is still very much up in the air. Currently, the Badgers are tied for fourth in the conference standings, which means a double bye is definitely still in play. However, with so many scenarios remaining and complicated tiebreakers that could come into play, figuring out Wisconsin's odds of earning a coveted double bye can be a real chore for fans. But have no fear, The Daily Cardinal is here with a statistical breakdown of the Badgers' chances of grabbing a top-four seed in Indianapolis.
Percentages in parentheses are calculated using KenPom.com and represent the chance of that outcome occurring.
Plain: Wisconsin wins at least one game (74%)
Italics: Wisconsin wins at least two games (41.4%)
Bold: Wisconsin wins out (15.3%)
Jump Maryland (34.4%) if:
- Maryland loses to Purdue, loses to Illinois, loses to Indiana (4.1%)
- Maryland loses to Purdue, loses to Illinois, beats Indiana (1.9%)
- Maryland loses to Purdue, beats Illinois, loses to Indiana (42.1%)
- Maryland beats Purdue, loses to Illinois, loses to Indiana (2%)
- Maryland beats Purdue, beats Illinois, loses to Indiana (20.1%)
Maryland beats Purdue, loses to Illinois, beats Indiana (.09%)Maryland loses to Purdue, beats Illinois, beats Indiana (18.9%)Maryland beats Purdue, beats Illinois, beats Indiana (9.3%)
Jump Michigan State (2.6%) if:
- MSU loses to Penn State, loses to Rutgers, loses to Ohio State (.01%)
- MSU loses to Penn State, loses to Rutgers, beats Ohio State (.1%)
- MSU loses to Penn State, beats Rutgers, loses to Ohio State (.3%)
- MSU beats Penn State, loses to Rutgers, loses to Ohio State (.3%)
- MSU beats Penn State, beats Rutgers, loses to Ohio State (8.3%)
- MSU beats Penn State, loses to Rutgers, beats Ohio State (2.6%)
- MSU loses to Penn State, beats Rutgers, beats Ohio State (3.5%)
MSU beats Penn State, beats Rutgers, beats Ohio State (84.7%)
Jump Iowa (29.6%) if:
- Iowa loses to Ohio State, loses to Indiana, loses to Michigan (5.6%)
- Iowa loses to Ohio State, loses to Indiana, beats Michigan (6.6%)
- Iowa loses to Ohio State, beats Indiana, loses to Michigan (11.4%)
- Iowa beats Ohio State, loses to Indiana, loses to Michigan (9.5%)
- Iowa beats Ohio State, beats Indiana, loses to Michigan (19.4%)
- Iowa beats Ohio State, loses to Indiana, beats Michigan (11.2%)
- Iowa loses to Ohio State, beats Indiana, beats Michigan (13.4%)
Iowa beats Ohio State, beats Indiana, beats Michigan (22.8%)
Jump Indiana (3.2%) if:
- Indiana loses to Iowa, loses to Maryland (20.8%)
Indiana loses to Iowa, beats Maryland (46.2%)Indiana beats Iowa, loses to Maryland (10.2%)Indiana beats Iowa, beats Maryland (22.8%)
Wisconsin wins Big Ten if they win out (15.3%) AND:
- Indiana loses to Iowa AND loses to Maryland (20.8%)
- Iowa beats Indiana AND loses to Ohio State OR Michigan (44.2%)
- Michigan State loses at least one game (15.3%)
- Maryland beats Indiana AND loses to Purdue AND Illinois (1.9%)
So overall Wisconsin has a .0041% chance of winning the Big Ten and a 48.3% chance of earning a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
