No. 1 Indiana
The undisputed champions of the Big Ten hail from just an hour south of Banker’s Life Fieldhouse, the site of the 2016 Big Ten Tournament. That’s a huge advantage for Indiana, which plays significantly better at home. The Hoosiers have outscored teams by an absurd 23.6 points per game in Bloomington, while making a laughably high percentage of their shots from everywhere on the court. They’ve shot 53.3 percent from the floor, 42.8 percent from three and 74.6 percent from the free throw line, each of which is a marked improvement from their non-home games. In fact, you won’t find a statistical category which Indiana isn’t much better at home. And while the Hoosiers won’t technically be playing at home, playing 50 miles from campus is pretty close. They’ve already played one game in Indianapolis this year, an impressive come-from-behind win over Notre Dame. Indiana reeled off 12 straight wins earlier in the season, but don’t get it twisted: this team is playing its best basketball right now. The Hoosiers are riding a five-game winning streak into the conference tournament, with big wins over Purdue, Iowa and, most recently, an 80-62 shellacking of Maryland. Led by senior guard Yogi Ferrell, the Big Ten’s top seed has been on a mission all season, and it isn’t slowing down now.
No. 2 Michigan State
Indiana might lay claim to the top spot in the Big Ten, but these Spartans just might be the best team in the country. Three of their five losses this season have come by just one point, and if the Iowa Hawkeyes didn’t exist, Michigan State could be undefeated. MSU is riding a six-game winning streak in which it has outscored opponents by a combined 127 points, which includes an 88-69 dusting of the Hoosiers. This is the best team in the conference, and everyone knows it. The Spartans will be a trendy NCAA Tournament champion pick come Sunday barring a colossal disappointment in the conference tournament. They’re led by senior guard Denzel Valentine, who has a pretty strong case for National Player of the Year. Averaging 19.6 points, 7.5 assists and 7.4 rebounds per game, he’s one of just two players in the country to record multiple triple-doubles. The x-factor for Michigan State is Bryn Forbes, who is arguably the best offensive weapon in the country. In his second year since transferring from Cleveland State, Forbes is shooting a scorching 50.5 percent from deep on the year, and an absolutely mind-numbing 57.6 percent over the team’s last 11 games. The Spartans fell short of a regular season conference title, and they’ll be out for blood.
No. 3 Maryland
The Terrapins started conference play very well, going 10-2 with both losses coming on the road by single digits. They had nice wins over Iowa, Purdue and Wisconsin and sat just half a game out of first place in the conference. They were the No. 2 team in the country and things couldn’t have been much better. Then, thanks to a bizarre scheduling decision, Maryland took a break from conference play to host Bowie State, a middling Division II school from nearby Prince George’s County. The Terps won the game by 31 points, but they haven’t been the same since. They’ve lost four of six games, most notably a head-scratcher to Minnesota, which recently lost by the biggest margin in Big Ten Tournament history to 14-18 Illinois. Superstar guard Melo Trimble, once a catalyst for success for Maryland, has looked like a completely changed player. His shooting percentages are down across the board, he’s had trouble finding the open man and has turned the ball over nearly twice as often. Early in the season, Trimble made a living driving the hoop, shooting 58.4 percent from two-point range. Over the last six games, though, he’s made a dreadful 32.7 percent of his shots from inside the arc. Get this: Over the last 21 seasons, 21,382 players have taken at least five two-pointers per game, like Trimble has. His percentage on those shots over the last six games would rank him 21,339th. The Terps are reeling, and they need to get back on track quickly.
No. 4 Purdue
Senior center A.J. Hammons leads a group of well-rounded team players into the Big Ten Tournament, having just clinched a double-bye with a dominating win over Wisconsin in the final game of the regular season. Hammons has made big strides in his final year at Purdue, thanks in large part to the improvement of fellow center Isaac Haas. It’s rare that a team lands two capable seven-footers, but that’s the advantage the Boilermakers have been exploiting all year long. When Hammons gets tired—which is inevitable, given the effort he plays with on both ends of the court—Purdue can sub in Haas with a minimal drop off in production. And when Haas gets tired, back comes Hammons. This means they can play entire games with a seven-foot player on the court, something everyone else in the Big Ten can only dream of. The Boilermakers’ length gives them a huge advantage in the paint every game, and they make full use of that, as they’re among the best in the country at both offensive and defensive rebounding. They limit their opponent's opportunities and create more for themselves, and that’s how you stay efficient. Hammons’ and Haas’ paint presence opens up the court for Purdue’s shooters. One of the two centers receives the ball down low, then kicks out to the open man for a three. This is a common theme in Purdue basketball, which is why it boasts the 10th-most assists in the country and a 38.3 percent clip from deep in conference play.
No. 5 Iowa
The Hawkeyes may have saved face with a 10-point win over Michigan in their final game, but this is another team in a complete tailspin. A month ago, they sat in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten and had won 12 of 13 games. Two blowouts of Michigan State had everybody talking about the dynamic duo of Jared Uthoff and Peter Jok, and for good reason. February, however, was not kind to Iowa. The Hawkeyes dropped five of their next six games, with their only win coming against Minnesota by a mere four points. This team is not wont for shooters—they’ve got four players shooting better than 40 percent from three, and Uthoff is just below that at 39.2 percent. But those shooters have been misfiring of late. Over the past seven games, Iowa’s 3-point percentage has dropped over seven percent, down to 32.6 from 39.7. For a team that likes the three-ball as much as the Hawkeyes, that’s a dangerous drop. They take 21.6 threes per game, so a seven percent dip in success rate means they’re leaving nearly five points off the board every time they step on the court. Of course, 3-pointers are notoriously hard to predict, and a team like Iowa can start drilling them at any time. And if they do, this team is dangerous.
