The Daily Cardinal's Thomas Valtin-Erwin has created his own predictive rating system to project the winner of any college basketball matchup. These ratings are based on offensive and defensive efficiency, or points per possession for and against. They are adjusted for strength of schedule. The adjustment was made by correlating rating to how far the team went in the NCAA Tournament, so as to best predict tournament performance.
The expected win probability is calculated by comparing two teams’ ratings using a variation of a formula created and perfected by Ken Pomeroy, the king of college basketball statistics. The score projection is based on comparing Team A’s offensive efficiency with Team B’s defensive efficiency (and the opposite) and then adjusting for expected possessions.
