Player to watch: Melo Trimble, Maryland
The Terrapin point guard’s sophomore slump has been inexplicable and extremely frustrating for Maryland fans, but Trimble is still the kind of player who can catch fire and lead his team on a deep tournament run. Trimble is shooting 41.4 percent from the field (down from 44.4 percent last season) and 33.5 percent from 3-point range (down from 41.2 percent). He’s been wildly inconsistent and has posted truly abysmal performances this season, but he’s still a player who, when he’s on top of his game, can be one of the best point guards in the country. If Trimble gets on a hot streak, no one will be surprised to see Maryland advance to the second weekend and possibly beyond. But if his inconsistencies continue, a first-weekend exit appears to be in the cards for the Terrapins.
Dream matchup—Early Rounds: No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 10 Temple
If the Owls can get past the tanking Iowa Hawkeyes in the first round, it sets the stage for matchup against Big 5 rival Villanova for a spot in the Sweet 16. The Owls and the Wildcats have met just once before in the NCAA Tournament, a 77-69 Villanova victory back in 1970. The Wildcats hold a 47-43 edge in the all-time series, the closest out of any of the rivalries between the five Philadelphia schools, and beat Temple 83-67 back on Feb. 17. While it likely wouldn’t have the intensity of Kansas-Wichita State last year, a potential matchup against two historic rivals certainly stands out in the first weekend of South Region play. Add in the fact that Villanova is trying to shake its reputation as a team that can’t get past the first weekend, and you have all the makings of a can’t-miss basketball game.
Dream matchup—Late Rounds: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Villanova
A No. 1 vs. No. 2 game isn’t the most inspiring of picks, but the Jayhawks and the Wildcats are two legitimate national championship contenders. Both have been placed in the Region of Death and will not have an easy path to the Elite Eight. But if both teams manage to run their respective gauntlets and meet for spot in the Final Four, we could be treated to one of the best games of the NCAA Tournament. Kansas is ranked No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency ratings, plus has the fifth-best defense and the eighth-best offense. Meanwhile, Villanova is No. 5 in the KenPom ratings, and has the seventh-best defense and the 11th-best offense. If all pans out, we’ll get two of the country’s most balanced teams duking it out for a coveted spot in college basketball’s final weekend. Outside of Virginia-Michigan State, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more intriguing Elite Eight matchup in this year’s tournament.
Dark horse: No. 9 Connecticut
A talented UConn team catching fire and using voodoo magic on its way to a conference tournament title. Where have we seen that before? Aided by a half-court heave/quadruple overtime victory over Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament, the Huskies find themselves in the Big Dance after missing out last year. UConn was wildly inconsistent in conference play, due in large part to the 11-game absence of center Amida Brimah. But with Brimah back providing a solid presence in the post and the Huskies’ defense holding opponents to roughly 41 percent on shots from the interior, they’ll be a team that no higher seed will be all too interested in facing. The winner of the Vanderbilt-Wichita State play-in game could do some damage as well, but it is never a bad idea to bet on UConn and its March voodoo magic.
Grab Bag: Five coaches have led a team to the Final Four
Out of the 16 coaches in the South Region, five of them have led a team to the Final Four—Bill Self (Kansas), Jim Larrañaga (Miami), Jay Wright (Villanova), Gregg Marshall (Wichita State) and Kevin Ollie (Connecticut). Outside of Larrañaga, who led George Mason on its Cinderella run to the Final Four a decade ago, each has accomplished that feat with their current program. Having this many well-established coaches within the region makes the already tall task of advancing to the Final Four in Houston that much harder.
