Following their dramatic win over Xavier last Sunday, the Wisconsin Badgers have advanced to the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend for the fifth time in the last six years and are looking for more.
No. 7 seed Wisconsin (20-12) will take on No. 6 seed Notre Dame (21-11) in a Sweet Sixteen matchup Friday night at 6:27 p.m. in Philadelphia.
Like the Badgers, the Fighting Irish needed a last-second victory to get out of the second round of this year’s tournament. In its last game, Notre Dame defeated 14th-seeded Stephen F. Austin 76-75 thanks to a tip-in by freshman guard Rex Plfueger with 1.5 seconds left. The win gave the Irish back-to-back Sweet 16 appearances for the first time under head coach Mike Brey, who took over in 2000.
Though Notre Dame appears to have finally gotten over an NCAA Tournament hump, its recent tournament success pales in comparison to Wisconsin’s March triumphs over the last several years.
The Badgers have made it to the Sweet Sixteen five times in the last six years, an accomplishment that no other program in the country has matched over that time span. They’ve also made three consecutive trips to the Sweet Sixteen, the longest current streak in the nation. And with a pair of wins this weekend, UW will become the first school to make three straight Final Four appearances since Ben Howland’s UCLA Bruins accomplished that feat from 2006 to 2008.
Of course, this year’s NCAA Tournament run has been the Badgers’ most improbable in recent years given the struggles and turmoil that plagued the team early on in the season.
“Greg Gard should be mentioned for national coach of the year stuff,” Brey said. “I mean, this team was 9-9, 1-4 [in Big Ten play]. They lost to Milwaukee and Western-Illinois at home. And he's got them really playing. I think they're extremely confident.”
The Wisconsin defense has been extremely stout throughout this NCAA Tournament, but it will get its toughest test against a Notre Dame team that sports one of the country’s most efficient offenses.
The Irish rank ninth in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating, while the Badgers rank 11th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating.
“Last week we grew as much defensively as we had all year in the two games against Pittsburgh and Xavier. And hopefully that experience and developing that mindset and that maturity — and understand this is the first time in 15 years we have not had a senior starter or senior player in the rotation,” Gard said. “So our maturity level, we've had to expedite that through this season. I think last week we took a huge jump, especially on the defensive end. We had 60 days ago we couldn't defend like we did last weekend. So our toughness level and our commitment to the defensive end has grown exponentially in the last two, three weeks, but really showed its face last weekend.”
But despite the Fighting Irish’s highly efficient offense, they are a bit lackluster on the defensive end.
Notre Dame ranks 172nd in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, easily the worst mark of any team that made it to the tournament’s second weekend.
Like Wisconsin, opponents have had success against the Irish from 3-point range. The Badgers allow opponents to shoot 37.5 percent from behind the arc, ranking 323rd out of 351 Division I teams, while teams shoot 37.2 percent against Notre Dame, which ranks 311th.
However, opponents are averaging 20.9 3-point shot attempts against the Irish, quite a bit higher than the 15.5 mark that teams average against the Badgers. While that discrepancy could potentially be explained by Wisconsin’s slow pace of play — the Badgers rank 345th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric — Notre Dame doesn’t exactly play at a breakneck pace, ranking 321st in the KenPom tempo rating.
Notre Dame’s defensive woes could be good news for junior forward Nigel Hayes, who is currently mired in a significant shooting slump.
Over the last three games, Hayes has gone just 7 of 42 from the field (16.7 percent), and he has missed his last 18 attempts from 3-point range. While the Badgers have been able to survive and advance in this tournament despite Hayes’s struggles, they might not be able to get much further without increased contributions on the offensive end from their star player.
Bronson Koenig broke out of his slump in a big way against Xavier. If Nigel Hayes can do the same, Wisconsin’s roller coaster of a season might continue for at least a couple more days.
