The Daily Cardinal will be on the ground at both the Republican and Democratic Conventions. Follow here and @CardPolitics on Twitter for comprehensive updates from Cleveland and Philadelphia.
With the Republican National Convention starting Monday, here are five things to watch as thousands of delegates, media and observers flock to Cleveland.
1. How the convention will be unconventional
This is, in some respects, a trick question; as this year’s convention will be very different than normal. Many of the most prominent voices in the Republican party, including past presidents George H.W. and George W. Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney, will not be attending. Rank and file members have concocted excuses to make themselves scarce in Cleveland, with Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake leading them all by saying he will skip the event to “mow his lawn.”
The reason behind all this is of course Donald Trump, himself, the most unconventional presidential candidate in recent memory. In turn, he has promised a convention that will be replete with pageantry and absent the normal “boring” political speeches. Speakers from ex-football player Tim Tebow to UFC President Dana White to each of his four children will appear. While Trump will likely not speak each night, as he initially considered, the Trump brand of grandiosity will be everywhere, right down to the stage he accepts the nomination on.
2. How the convention will be … normal
That all being said, people may be surprised at how this year’s convention will resemble those in the past. The Trump campaign will not get to completely turn Cleveland into one giant Apprentice set.
The platform will need to be written, per usual. It is possible that conservatives who are not quite enamored with Trump will use it to underscore some Republican values that the business mogul doesn’t tout prominently: abortion rights, trade and foreign policy all come to mind.
Despite Trump’s disdain for sleep-inducing political speeches, those too will be present. Guests ranging from Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will take the stage in Cleveland for the requisite prime time speeches. While some big names will be missing, party heavyweights like Walker and Cruz will lend some political gravitas and keep some sense of normalcy to the proceedings.
3. The movement to “Dump Trump”
Even though political junkies have mostly cast their dreams of a contested convention aside, there are more than a few rumblings that Trump’s status as the presumptive nominee will be challenged in Cleveland and an attempt to install a more traditional choice will take place.
What would that look like? Follow along closely, because its complicated. One route that anti-Trump proponents want is for delegates to simply vote for another candidate, citing convincing research showing that delegates are not actually bound to vote for someone despite what the RNC may insist.
The second option is the more complicated one. A posse of Rules Committee members, who have set the bylaws of the convention, want to move to either unbind the delegates or allow them “to vote their conscience” (i.e vote for someone other than Trump). The group, which has termed themselves Free the Delegates, would potentially allow the dumping of Trump to commence if a majority of all delegates coalesce behind another candidate and cast their votes for them.
The problem with this plan is ultimately the math. Leaders of the group have said they have the votes needed to move forward but given that there are dozens of Trump supporters on the Rules Committee, a simple majority seems unlikely. Moreover actually coalescing behind a candidate and getting the majority of delegates needed to support them on the convention floor will prove to be even more trying. But it is far more likely that the group will meet the 28 delegate threshold in the Rules Committee required to have a full vote on a conscience clause measure the convention floor. Regardless of if this succeeds, it will likely lead to a messy floor fight that will embarrass the RNC, embolden Trump supporters further and lead to a prime-time show that should not be missed.
4. Protests, protests, protests
Every convention sees protests of some sort and those movements often lead to clashes between police and protesters. It is a virtual certainty that both pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces will take to the streets of Cleveland regardless of the scenes on the convention floor. The magnitude of those movements (and the police response) are evoking images in many people’s minds of the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago, which was fraught with anti-Vietnam War protests and violent crackdown on activists. A few things have led to this with the first obviously being the controversial nature of Trump, who will inspire fervent opponents and supporters to hit the streets. In addition, questions of whether the original plan for protests violated the First Amendment caused a federal judge to order the city to re-do its restrictions. The resulting plan could cause more confrontation between opposing groups and more confusion as law enforcement agencies scramble to keep protesters, delegates and media safe. Will we see the same level of violence as 1968? This is one question that no one quite knows the answer to.
5. The importance of students
It is unlikely that college affordability will play as big of a role as it will in the Democratic Convention a week later, as the Republicans will probably choose to showcase other issues. But young people will still be vital in shaping the convention, and their fingerprint on the Republican party has been increasing, defying the stereotype of the Grand Old Party. College affordability and school choice will play into the drafting of the platform and young activists will attempt to affect the party’s stance on everything from abortion rights to immigration. While those strains of the party will be more visible in Philadelphia, they will certainly be present in Cleveland as well. For example, a section of the Republican platform currently insists that instances of sexual assault on college campuses should only be investigated by courts and not the universities themselves. The draft argues that to do otherwise “contravenes our country’s legal tradition” and that “it must be investigated by civil authorities and prosecuted in a courtroom, not a faculty lounge.” This puts the RNC at odds with many prominent activist groups and while a party’s platform is not officially binding, it does represent an official statement of purpose. There will likely be more to follow that will interest students.
